The world is awaiting the outcomes of the 29th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP29), being held in Baku, Azerbaijan, from November 11 to 22, 2024. Leaders and officials hope to seize this opportunity to accelerate action on addressing the climate crisis. This comes at a time when the world is experiencing record-breaking temperatures and the impacts of extreme weather events, such as unprecedented floods in Spain, violent storms and hurricanes in the United States, and wildfires in South America.
Coinciding with the first day of COP29, a report by the World Meteorological Organization confirmed that 2024 is on track to be the hottest year on record. The organization's Secretary-General, Celeste Saulo, stated, "The record-breaking rainfall and floods, rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones, deadly heat, widespread droughts, and raging wildfires we have witnessed in different parts of the world this year are, sadly, our new reality and a foretaste of the future."
Based on these developments, this analysis focuses on the phenomenon of hurricanes and the impact of climate change, especially after the United States recently experienced a number of powerful hurricanes and storms, such as Hurricanes Helene and Milton. President Joe Biden described Hurricane Milton as "expected to be one of the strongest and most destructive hurricanes to hit Florida in over a century." The United States has developed risk reduction systems to improve its preparedness and response capabilities for these increasingly frequent and severe disasters.
Hurricane Losses
Different parts of the world have different names for the same weather phenomenon, which is hurricanes or severe storms, characterized by high wind speeds. When wind speeds exceed 17 meters per second, it is called a "Tropical Storm." If wind speeds reach 33 meters per second, it is called a "Hurricane" in the Atlantic Ocean and Northeast Pacific, a "Typhoon" in the Northwest Pacific, a "Cyclone" in the Southwest Pacific and Southeast Indian Ocean, and a "Tropical Cyclone" in the North and Southwest Indian Ocean.
According to the International Disaster Database, from 2000 to 2024, the world witnessed approximately 1,829 severe storms under their various names, causing the deaths of over 213,000 people, injuring and affecting more than 594 million others, and resulting in direct recorded losses of over 1.8 trillion dollars.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Centers for Environmental Information, the United States has experienced around 400 climate disasters since 1980, resulting in the deaths of approximately 16,768 people, with economic losses exceeding 2.789 trillion dollars over the same period.
Severe storms and hurricanes have been a prominent feature among these disasters. The United States experienced approximately 226 severe storms and hurricanes between 2000 and 2024, resulting in the deaths of 8,202 people and economic losses estimated at 1.72 trillion dollars. The average number of major climate disasters for the period (1980-2024) was 8.9 events per year, while the annual average for the most recent 5 years (2019-2024) was 21 events, reflecting a significant increase in the number of major climate disasters in the last five years.
From the beginning of 2024 until November 1 of the same year, the United States experienced approximately 24 major climate disasters, resulting in the deaths of 418 people and causing significant economic impacts on affected areas. Among these, 17 disasters were due to severe storms and tropical cyclones (about 87.5% of climate disasters until November 1, 2024), resulting in the deaths of 355 people and economic losses estimated at over 56.3 billion dollars.
In late September of this year, Hurricane Helene struck the southeastern United States, killing more than 225 people. It was the strongest hurricane on record to hit the Big Bend region of Florida, the deadliest Atlantic hurricane since Hurricane Maria in 2017, and the deadliest to hit the United States since Hurricane Katrina in 2005. Less than two weeks after Hurricane Helene, Hurricane Milton struck Florida, killing around 24 people. It was the fourth strongest hurricane and the second Category 5 hurricane in the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season and the strongest tropical cyclone worldwide in 2024 so far.
Although there is no official data yet on the extent of the material losses caused by the two hurricanes, estimates from CoreLogic, a leading US information services company, indicate that the losses from Hurricane Helene alone could reach 47.5 billion dollars.
Impact of Climate Change
A recently published study, coinciding with the start of the COP29 conference, indicates that rising ocean temperatures not only fuel strong Atlantic storms but also cause them to intensify more rapidly. Storms can now escalate from Category 1 to Category 3 within a matter of hours. Growing evidence suggests that this trend is also applicable to other oceans. For instance, Hurricane Milton took only a day in the Gulf of Mexico last October to transition from a tropical storm to the second most powerful hurricane in the region.
A group of scientists employed various methodologies to investigate the impact of climate change on different aspects of Hurricane Helene. A study published on October 9th by Imperial College London revealed the following key findings:
Climate change caused extremely heavy rainfall in the southern states even before the arrival of the hurricane-related heavy rain, leading to devastating floods. The rainfall was at least 10% heavier due to climate change.
The storm analysis model (IRIS) was used to investigate the strong winds caused by the hurricane. The model showed that climate change was responsible for a 150% increase in the number of such storms and that the maximum wind speeds are now about 11% more intense.
These findings collectively demonstrate that climate change enhances conditions favorable for hurricanes like Helene, with increases in both total rainfall and wind speeds. This aligns with other scientific findings suggesting that Atlantic tropical cyclones have become wetter under climate change and are subject to faster intensification.
Enhancing Response
The harsh history of the impact of storms and hurricanes in the United States and other countries highlights the importance of strengthening and developing preparedness and response capabilities for increasingly frequent climate disasters, particularly hurricanes. The increased frequency and intensity of hurricanes over the past two decades have necessitated the development of effective strategies to address them at various institutional, legislative, planning, and regulatory levels, as well as enhancing awareness, improving preparedness, and early warning systems.
Early preparations can reduce damage and losses by up to 50%. A report from the National Institute of Building Sciences shows that every dollar invested in preparedness efforts can save up to $6 in response and recovery costs. According to an economic study conducted by Allstate and the US Chamber of Commerce in June 2024, every dollar spent on resilience and preparedness for climate change saves communities about $13 in damages, cleanup costs, and economic impact. This can be illustrated as follows:
Importance of Early Warning: Early preparedness is a critical element in mitigating the impact of disasters. This includes developing effective evacuation plans and providing accurate information to the public on how to respond to hurricanes. According to the US National Hurricane Center (NHC), forecast accuracy has improved by 50% over the past decade, giving people more time to prepare.
Training Local Communities and Enhancing Technology Use: Government agencies offer training programs to communities to raise awareness about how to respond during disasters and emergencies. A 2023 survey conducted by the National Weather Association showed that about 68% of participants reported feeling more prepared for hurricanes compared to five years ago, attributed to increased awareness and access to early warning systems.
Developing Infrastructure: Improving infrastructure is a vital step in reducing hurricane damage. This includes building dams, developing drainage systems, and upgrading electrical grids. For example, New Orleans implemented infrastructure projects after Hurricane Katrina in 2005 to improve future preparedness. According to the economic study conducted by Allstate and the US Chamber of Commerce, investing $10.8 billion in resilience and preparedness to face a Category 4 hurricane in Miami would save the region from losing approximately 184,000 jobs, with saved production and income amounting to approximately $26 billion and $17 billion, respectively.
Interagency Cooperation: The US administration has supported preparedness capabilities by strengthening cooperation among various stakeholders, including the federal government, states, and local communities. This cooperation includes sharing information, developing joint emergency plans, and coordinating partnerships with non-governmental organizations that play a significant role in enhancing preparedness capabilities. The American Red Cross, for example, has provided training and support to local communities, helping to raise awareness and prepare individuals for disasters.
Effective risk management requires "risk governance," which clearly distinguishes between responses to individual events and broader risk reduction. This is through integrated analysis and the application of new insights into managing past disasters, as well as learning from past lessons to guide present actions and shape greater resilience and sustainability in the future. The United States has developed strategies to reduce the risks of storms and hurricanes as a result of the high frequency of exposure to these phenomena. This is through deeper data analysis to better understand climate patterns and predict the impact of hurricanes, identify the most vulnerable areas, and allocate resources effectively. This enables informed decision-making that integrates with other steps and procedures, such as developing emergency plans, training workers and volunteers, raising community awareness, and coordinating efforts among agencies at various levels.
