British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has announced that early general elections will be held on July 4. The parliament was officially dissolved on Thursday, May 30, 2024, in preparation for the snap elections, amid expectations that the Labour Party may return to power to end 14 years of the Conservatives rule. These measures end speculations about the election date, as previous predictions indicated they might be held in November.
Voting Mechanisms
The Parliament of the United Kingdom has 650 parliamentary constituencies across the constituent countries (England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland), each of which elects one Member of Parliament (MP) to the House of Commons for a five-year term (unless early elections are called). Thus, the party that wins 326 or more seats can form the government.
After the votes are counted, the king asks the party leader with the most seats to become Prime Minister and form a new government. The leader of the party with the second most seats becomes the leader of the opposition.
If no party secures a majority, a "hung parliament" occurs. The party with the most seats then has two options: the first is to form a coalition government with another party, which involves political negotiations about the distribution of ministerial positions. The second option is to form a minority government in which the winning party holds ministerial positions but cannot pass any legislation without coordinating with one or more other parties or cooperating with the independents.
Influential Issues
Several issues could significantly influence the upcoming British elections, including:
1. The condition of the economy:
The British economy has suffered consecutive shocks. Official figures showed it entered a recession at the end of 2023 for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic. This recession was exacerbated by high interest rates imposed by the Conservative government, with the Bank of England (the central bank) raising rates to their highest level in 16 years at 5.25% to tackle another issue: high inflation rates exceeding 11%. Tax cuts announced by former Prime Minister Liz Truss worsened the negative economic situation, as there were not enough resources to cover these cuts, leading to their subsequent reversal. This led to a loss of confidence in the Conservatives' economic decisions and negatively impacted Britain's currency.
2. Immigration:
Immigration remains a major issue for British public opinion. The UK recorded a record number of 606,000 immigrants in 2022 (later revised upwards to 745,000). The British government had taken steps to reduce the number of immigrants, including imposing restrictions on family reunification for foreign students and switching from a student visa to a work visa, culminating in an agreement to transfer asylum seekers entering the UK "illegally" from a safe country to Rwanda.
3. Health sector:
According to polls, this sector faces several problems, making it a top priority for voters. The main issue identified by the British public is the shortage of medical staff, followed by long waiting lists for appointments, lack of investments in the sector, and other problems such as an aging workforce, preventive health issues, bureaucracy, and treatment costs.
Election Campaigns
The election campaigns of the two main parties (Labour and Conservatives) can be outlined as follows:
1. Labour Party:
Labour is approaching the election under the banner of a one-word slogan: 'Change', aiming to convey the message that it will pursue policies entirely different from the Conservatives. The slogan also promotes the idea that after 14 years of Conservative rule, it is time for the British to change persons and policies, especially after the recent economic failures of the Conservatives. Labour's campaign focuses on:
A. Achieving economic stability:
While Labour has an ambitious goal of achieving the highest economic growth rate among the G7 countries, it has been cautious in addressing the economic issue in its campaign. The focus is on achieving "economic stability," contrasting with the economic turmoil caused by Liz Truss's sudden tax cut decisions and subsequent reversal, which damaged the Conservatives' image and economic policies. However, achieving economic stability might conflict with Labour's historical trend of accelerating growth through increased public spending and tax cuts.
B. Reducing NHS waiting lists:
One of the main concerns for the British public is healthcare provided by the National Health System (NHS). Labour has made specific promises to resolve this issue, such as ensuring ambulances reach severe incidents within seven minutes and having 95% of emergency department patients either admitted or discharged within four hours, compared to the current 74%. The reform plan also includes starting cancer treatment for 96% of patients within a month of diagnosis.
C. Tightening border security:
While the Conservatives relied on the Rwanda deportation plan to address immigration, Labour has taken a different approach. Labour leader Keir Starmer has pledged to cancel the Rwanda plan and instead use its funds to enhance border security by hiring investigators, providing additional technology and security personnel, and holding those smuggling immigrants into the UK accountable rather than spending money on deporting them to a third country.
D. Investing in clean energy:
Labour had previously pledged to invest £28 billion annually in green energy, but its leader has revised this to £15 billion. The plan involves establishing a British company specializing in green energy to develop technologies that the private sector avoids due to high risk. Labour has promised to establish this company in Scotland within 100 days if it is elected and aims to achieve the goal of carbon-free electricity generation by 2030.
E. Ensuring community safety:
This broad goal focuses on street safety, increasing public confidence in the police, and reducing crime rates. Labour has not specified targets for crime rates but announced plans to address anti-social behavior by allocating more resources and hiring youth counselors and psychologists, particularly in schools.
F. Hiring new teachers:
The Labour Party has pledged to secure jobs for 6,500 teachers by increasing tax revenue collected from private schools. However, the party has not specified a timeline for implementing this promise.
2. The Conservative Party
A. National service plan:
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced a plan for mandatory national service if he wins the election. His plan, however, is not compulsory military conscription in the strict sense. Instead, it mandates a form of national service for 18-year-olds, requiring them to choose either a year of military training or civil service duties during weekends. Despite drawing criticism, the announcement of this plan is part of the Conservative electoral program. The party aims to appeal to its conservative base and traditional forces that believe in strengthening Britain's security amid the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian war and the need to increase the size of the British Army, which has been declining in recent years.
B. Deporting Migrants:
This is a cornerstone of the Conservatives' rhetoric. The party heavily promotes its plan to deport migrants to Rwanda to improve its faltering popularity, as indicated by opinion polls. The "Rwanda Plan" has thus become a central element of the rhetoric used by the party's officials, including Sunak. Notably, Sunak recently declared, after announcing the election date, that no migrants would be deported to Rwanda unless his party wins the election. This followed reports that the first flight to Rwanda could depart in early July, just days before the elections.
C. Promoting economic improvements:
The Conservatives seek to highlight some positive economic indicators. For example, they emphasize the reduction of inflation from 10.7% between October and December 2022 to 4.2% in the same period in 2023.
Final Observations
Given the above, several general points and observations can be made:
1. Announcing the early election:
Sunak's announcement that early parliamentary elections will be held on July 4 is surprising and runs contrary to expectations that he might delay the elections to November to try and close the support gap among the British public. The decision to hold early elections can be explained by the following:
A. Economic conditions:
The Conservatives recognize that economic conditions, especially macroeconomic indicators, might worsen in the coming months. Therefore, it is better to hold elections now to avoid further losses in their popular base.
B. Labour's chances:
Sunak is perhaps betting that Labour will not be able to secure the majority needed to form a government on its own (326 seats), as he indicated after the recent local elections. Waiting until November might give Labour more time to organize and strengthen its base, increasing its chances of securing an outright majority. That is why Sunak decided to hold early elections.
2. Labour's cautious promises:
Labour has been notably cautious in its campaign promises:
A. Street safety:
Labour has not specified target numbers for reducing crime rates, nor has it addressed structural issues such as the capacity of British courts and prisons to handle a large number of cases currently.
B. Immigration:
Although Labour has announced plans to allocate significant funds for border security, it has not committed to completely stopping small boats crossing the English Channel, which is a major source of migrants.
C. Green energy investment:
Labour's cautious approach led to reducing its initial plan to invest £26 billion to £15 billion.
3. Labour's potential majority:
Labour is projected to win the most parliamentary seats, but indicators suggest it may not achieve an outright majority (326 seats) on its own. Therefore, Labour might seek a coalition with the Green Party (given its green investment plan) or the Liberal Democrats to form the government.
According to the BBC general election 2024 poll tracker, on May 24, Labour leads with voter support ranging from 39% to 49% (average 44%), followed by the Conservatives with support ranging from 18% to 28% (average 23%), the Reform UK Party with support between 8% and 14% (average 11%), the Liberal Democrats with support ranging from 6% to 12% (average 9%), the Green Party with support between 3% and 9% (average 6%), and finally, the Scottish National Party (average 3% in Scotland) and Plaid Cymru (average 1% in Wales).
4. Labour's structural changes:
The Labour Party is undergoing structural changes, particularly with calls to change its stance on several issues, most notably its relationship with the British business sector. There are internal party movements pushing to reform its relationship with business leaders, as evidenced by Labour holding discussions with several prominent business figures.
5. Limited impact on foreign policy:
Given its largely institutional nature, Labour's potential formation of the next government is expected to have a limited impact on British foreign policy. This includes the stance on the war in Gaza, further underscored by Shadow Foreign Secretary David Lammy, who is expected to become Foreign Secretary if Labour forms the government. Lammy is a member of Labour Friends of Israel.
