A spokesman of the Somali government, on January 9, announced that Somali leaders agreed to complete parliamentary elections by February 25. The agreement was reached during week-long meetings of the National Consultative Council in the capital Moghadishu. The five federal state presidents and the governor of the Banaadir Region attended the meeting headed by Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Roble.
Fast-Paced Developments
Several variables influenced the situation in Somalia recently, showing positive signs that the political stalemate overshadowing the landscape in Mogadishu will probably be broken. In this context, the following developments stand out:
1. New deals:
The presidents of the five states of Galmudug, Hirshabelle, Jubaland, Puntland and South West, and the governor of Banaadir held talks at the National Consultative Council in the capital Moghadishu from 3 to 9 January. They also held consultations with representatives of the Union of Presidential Candidates, civil society organizations and international partners.
Some assessments at the start of the new development noted that these meetings were likely to fail to reach any agreements because of the highly complicated issues regarding the elections, as well as an escalation of the crisis between President Farmaajo and the Prime Minister. But on January 9th, a closing statement issued by the Consultative Council declared that a new agreement was reached to accelerate the electoral process.
The recent agreement included 18 articles, the most important of which provides for completing the parliamentary elections between January 15 and February 25, ensuring the transparency and integrity of the elections and independence of oversight committees at the federal and local levels and maintaining the impartiality of the army and police forces over political issues. The agreement also calls upon the African Union Mission to Somalia (AMISOM) to ratchet up security measures to protect the presidential complex.
2. The opposition's support for the agreement:
The Union of Presidential Candidates, an alliance of the main opposition parties, welcomed the outcome of the National Consultative Council, and noted that the Prime Minister is responsible for enforcing security in the country until the parliamentary and presidential elections are over. It also called upon the Somali government to oversee the elections and guarantee transparency.
3. Support from regional and international powers:
The United Nations welcomed the recent agreement. Stéphane Dujarric, Spokesman for the United Nations Secretary-General, called for implementing the decisions while also avoiding any provocations that may threaten to trigger fresh tensions. Moussa Faki Mahamat, Chairperson of the African Union Commission, welcomed the outcome of the conference of the Somali leaders.
Somalia’s regional and international partners too issued a joint statement backing the decisions made by the National Consultative Council and calling Somali parties to expedite the parliamentary electoral process, prioritize public interests, ensuring that top security chiefs are not involved in the political process. The statement was jointly issued by AMISOM, African Union Commission, the US Embassy and the UK Embassy, Ambassadors of Turkey and Arab countries including Egypt.
4. US threats:
The United States warned Somali leaders if the country misses its latest deadline for elections. The US Department of State, on January 12th, said that the US is prepared to take measures if the new National Consultative Council timeline is not met.
Significant Implications
The latest agreement reached during the National Consultative Council meetings has several significant implications for the future of elections. These can be outlined as follows:
1. Ongoing Feud between Farmaajo and Roble:
Despite positive indications, the latest accord between the Somali leaders offered no solution to the latest crisis between Farmaajo and Roble. Farmaajo, whose four-year mandate ended in February last year, attempted to sideline Roble by suspending his powers to block the elections and stay in office.
It should be noted that as part of his attempt to stay in power, Farmaajo recently promoted a number of security leaders to win more loyalty.
The latest agreement does not include any reference to an immediate solution to the feud between Farmaago and Roble, despite references to the issue itself and the strengthening of Roble. This was evidenced by an emphasis on the need to complete the elections without any delay, as well as the United States’ brandishing the threat of sanctions against whoever creates obstacles to the process, which is a sign that the US is aware that Farmaago might be involved once again in postponing the elections. Additionally, the agreement provided for deploying AMISOM troops to the presidential complex to prevent any clashes between forces loyal to the president and forces backing the government.
The National Consultative Council meetings saw deep disagreement break out over who will take over security in the country. The prime minister insisted on keeping this task under his control to ensure transparency of the elections. Federal state presidents of Galmudug, Hirshabelle and South West, as well as the mayor of Moghadishu, who are loyal to the President strongly opposed Roble’s attempt, while the presidents of Putland and Jubaland, stood behind him.
Previous differences fueled polarization in the National Consultative Council meetings, which would have ruined any agreements, but the issue was sidelined and measures to reinforce the security of the presidential complex by AMISOM troops were provided for in the accord. Thus, the conflict between Framaago and Roble remains unsolved, a sign that it can surge any time.
2. The Future of the Elections Committee:
Although the accord sets a deadline for the parliamentary elections for February 25th, several issues were ignored by the closing statement. These include the fate of the seven senior figures removed by Roble from the electoral disputes committee, the role of security forces in the elections, as well as the way to address such disputes. Because these points of contention were left unresolved, failure to enforce the deadline set for completing the elections remains highly likely.
3. Escalating internal polarization:
Recently, political tensions spilled over to the Somali streets. Mogadishu witnessed popular anger after the mayor banned demonstrations that were due to be held on January 13 to protest Farmaago’s recent measures, which protestors described as a political coup.
The protestors were licensed by the minister of internal security to rally in the Taalada Daljirka Daahsoon Square, adjacent to the presidential complex, but the mayor of Moghadishu, who is loyal to Farmaago, banned the rally, which reveals deep discord within the political establishments in the capital.
This development coincided with the deployment of troops loyal to Farmaajo to the streets of Moghadishu, in coordination with loyal military forces, which threatens to escalate into violent clashes in the coming period.
Possible Scenarios
Three scenarios can be predicted for the trajectory of the crisis in Somalia in the coming period. These are:
1. Honoring the deal:
The parliamentary and presidential elections would be held on time, especially after the US threatened to impose sanctions against parties involved in hindering the elections. This scenario became likely especially after Farmaajo voiced support for the new deal.
2. Failure of the new roadmap:
This is the most likely scenario, especially because of the complicated issues left unsolved to date after the recent accord failed to work out a solution. Other reasons include the intense endeavors of the outgoing president to hinder the elections. This scenario becomes more likely given divisions gripping various political establishments, and some federal state presidents’ support for Farmaajo to hinder any fair and transparent elections. Overall, Farmaajo’s efforts to stay in power are at risk.
3. Armed confrontations:
This is a worst case scenario that would be caused by the failure of the new roadmap, because of Farmaajo’s attempts to obstruct the elections. After his failure to benefit from a limited military move to oust Roble, Farmaajo may seek to rally more loyal figures inside the security establishment and the army to remove his opponent, especially given Turkey’s military support for Farmaajo, which can possibly lead to an escalation of armed conflict in Moghadishu.
In conclusion, the outgoing president may well continue to make attempts to obstruct the elections to stay in power, while at the same time looking for political partners and trying to attract some opponents. Moreover, his efforts to rely on allies within the security establishment would mean that the parliamentary elections will not be held before the deadline of February 25, only to further exacerbate uncertainty over the political and security landscape in Somalia.
