To comprehend the American presence in the Middle East, it is crucial to recognize Washington's primary interests in the region. Among these interests, several hold significant prominence: ensuring the uninterrupted flow of energy to global markets, countering the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, combating terrorist groups, providing support to key partners and allies, and confronting the influence exerted by major rival powers, specifically China and Russia.
In a momentous development on April 8, 2023, the US Navy announced the deployment of the nuclear-powered attack submarine USS Florida in the Middle East. Notably, this submarine possesses the capability to carry 154 Tomahawk Land Attack Missiles. This deployment holds immense importance as, unlike submarines that typically pass through the region, this specific submarine will remain stationed in the area for an extended period. Preceding this deployment, the US Department of Defense announced the extension of the aircraft carrier George H.W. Bush's presence in the eastern Mediterranean and expedited the deployment of A-10 attack aircraft to a base in the Middle East. These actions signify Washington's assessment of the potential for escalating tensions in the region and the imperative need to remain prepared to confront such challenges.
Washington's Goals
Tensions between the United States of America and Iran have escalated since former US President Donald Trump withdrew from the 2018 5+1 agreement with Tehran. The agreement aimed to lift sanctions against Iran in exchange for the curbing of its nuclear activities and stringent monitoring. Despite the current US administration under President Joe Biden making efforts to revive the stalled nuclear agreement, progress has reached an impasse. Tensions with Tehran have worsened due to Western accusations of Iran supplying drones to Russia for its war in Ukraine. Moreover, there has been a mutual escalation between Iran and Israel, particularly following recent incidents where military advisors from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps were killed and Syrian soldiers injured. In response, Tehran has pledged revenge against Tel Aviv.
Hence, the deployment of the nuclear submarine USS Florida to the region serves Washington's multiple goals, including:
1. Safeguarding American interests in the face of escalating tensions in the Middle East over the past few weeks. This includes various confrontations such as strikes and counter-strikes in Syria, as well as clashes involving the Israeli army in Palestine and Lebanon. According to the Wall Street Journal on April 8, US officials have intelligence indicating Iran's plans for further attacks in the region.
2. Strengthening the American presence in the region following a series of attacks on US troops in Syria. One such attack in March resulted in the death of an American contractor and injuries to dozens more in a drone attack carried out by Iran-backed forces, as per the American narrative.
3. Deterring Iran following a series of attacks on Israel by Tehran's regional allies. Washington cannot tolerate any ongoing threat to Tel Aviv. In addition to Iranian threats against Israeli merchant ships in the Arabian Gulf and the Sea of Oman, the US fleet has advised Israeli ships to disable their transmission and reception devices, sail as close as possible to the coast of Oman to avoid Iranian presence, and regularly report their location and any suspicious activities.
4. Ensuring maritime security and stability in the region, while preserving the stability of one of the world's busiest shipping lanes. This region facilitates the daily transportation of millions of dollars' worth of commercial goods, oil, and gas.
Warning Messages
Washington's deployment of a nuclear submarine to the Middle East conveys several significant messages, which can be outlined as follows:
1. Highlighting Iran as the primary destabilizing force in the Middle East:
The deployment of the submarine, which will remain stationed in the region to reinforce the US Fifth Fleet in Bahrain, serves as a clear indication of the threat posed to Tehran. This deployment involves the presence of a substantial nuclear force in close proximity to Iran's coast, emphasizing the seriousness of the situation.
2. Issuing a strong warning to Tehran:
The US military's unusual acknowledgment of the nuclear submarine's location sends a powerful message to Iran. Unlike ships and aircraft that can be tracked, submarines typically operate covertly. By publicly revealing the presence of a nuclear submarine, the US signals its seriousness in confronting Iran and its allies. This move has the potential to complicate negotiations for a new nuclear agreement, as it symbolizes a significant escalation by Washington.
3. Reassuring US partners and allies:
By deploying the nuclear submarine, Washington reassures its regional partners and allies that it remains committed to their security. It underscores the indispensability of the American military presence in countering Iranian threats. This gesture aims to restore trust in US regional security commitments, especially amidst China's growing influence in the Gulf region.
4. Reasserting American presence in a changing regional landscape:
The deployment reaffirms the US presence in the Middle East, considering the potential formation of new power dynamics and regional systems. This includes recent developments like the Saudi-Iranian rapprochement mediated by China on March 10, 2023, which has marked a crucial turning point in regional interactions. Washington seeks to maintain its influence and strategic positioning amid evolving regional dynamics.
5. Signaling readiness to employ force if necessary:
The deployment serves as a deterrent against future attacks on American forces or interests. It emphasizes that such threats will face retaliation, highlighting a new concept of deterrence based on rapid deployment and mobilization. This includes the ability to swiftly deploy military forces to the region from multiple locations within hours.
In conclusion, while the United States aims to mitigate escalation and preserve stability in the Middle East to safeguard its interests, it perceives deliberate acts of escalation from Iran and its allied forces targeting American military sites in Syria. Consequently, the US has taken measures such as mobilizing submarines and aircraft to convey a clear message of deterrence to Iran. Overall, the deployment of nuclear submarines and other forms of American military mobilization in the region may indicate a heightened level of tension in the foreseeable future.
