The sudden collapse of Sheikh Hasina's government after 15 years in power has left a dangerous void in Bangladesh, a nation of 170 million people. The long-standing Prime Minister resigned following violent demonstrations and fled to neighboring India after protesters stormed her official residence. The situation on the ground has become volatile amidst the power vacuum. The military has since appointed a caretaker government led by Nobel Peace Prize laureate and economist Muhammad Yunus, who was previously considered an opponent by Hasina's Awami League government and was accused of corruption. The conviction, however, was overturned by the court following the collapse of the Awami League's rule and Hasina's escape.

The key question now is whether the military will play a role in the country's future or if Yunus, in collaboration with the nascent student movement, can tackle the political, economic, and regional challenges facing Bangladesh—especially since the economist has announced his intention to call for general elections after a period of "stability." 

Transitional Arrangements

Yunus, the global founder of Grameen Bank for microcredit, called on protesters to calm down and halt demonstrations after the military agreed to appoint a caretaker government to fill the fragile power vacuum left by Hasina's departure. He emphasized that the country now needs calm to quickly restore confidence in the government and establish a roadmap for new elections. He pointed out that stability will enhance the caretaker government's efforts to prepare for "new leadership in order to fulfil the extraordinary potential of Bangladesh."

1. Military’s approval of the caretaker government:

In a national address, Bangladesh's army chief, General Waker-uz-Zaman, confirmed that the military had approved Yunus' caretaker government. Student leaders had requested the latter’s participation in the new administration amidst concerns about the military's future role in the country's politics as the army has a history of intervening in internal politics through coups and dictatorships. Zaman stated that the military would ensure the protesters' demands are met to restore stability, fully supporting Yunus as the head of the caretaker government.

2. Concerns over the transition's difficulties:

With Bangladesh standing at a crossroads, Hasina's resignation marks the beginning of a new chapter in the nation's history. While many celebrate the end of her rule, there is also a palpable sense of uncertainty about the future.  Indeed, although some Bangladeshis are relieved by Hasina's departure, they remain cautious about what lies ahead, particularly given past experiences where the military seized power. There are also concerns among activists and human rights advocates about the potential repetition of such events. The next steps taken by the caretaker government, the military, and civil society will be crucial in determining whether Bangladesh can manage this crisis and emerge from it.

3. Student groups’ discontent with military intervention:

Student and human rights groups in Bangladesh have expressed dissatisfaction with the military's involvement in the country's crisis, especially with growing fears of military interference in the upcoming caretaker government's decisions. The concept of a "caretaker government" is not new to Bangladesh. From 1990 to 2008, during general elections, the elected government handed over power to a technocratic caretaker administration tasked with conducting free and fair elections. This system was abolished in 2011, and the country’s armed forces had previously overthrown elected governments in the 1970s and 1980s and attempted coups in subsequent years.

Efforts for Stability

A group of 21 prominent Bangladeshi figures, including human rights activists and lawyers, have called on the caretaker administration to address the underlying causes of the widespread public discontent that led to Hasina's ouster. In a statement, they noted that the build-up of public anger over long-standing electoral fraud, rampant corruption, economic mismanagement, and repression has now erupted into a mass movement. They stressed that the military should not run the country but should instead hand over power to a civilian caretaker government and return to the barracks. Nahid Islam, one of the main organizers of the student movement, stated in a video with three other organizers: "Any government other than the one we recommended would not be accepted."

1. Plans for democratic transition:

In a move aimed at stabilizing the situation, Bangladeshi President Mohammed Shahabuddin announced the release of opposition leader and former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia, along with other political detainees. The president also declared that the current parliament would be dissolved immediately and that the caretaker administration would be tasked with organizing new elections to ensure a peaceful and democratic transition of power without military interference. He affirmed that the formation of this caretaker government would be closely monitored both within Bangladesh and by the international community, as it will determine the country's political future.

2. Observers view the military as guardians of democracy:

Observers have noted that although the military sees itself as the guardian of democracy in Bangladesh, its appetite for remaining in power for an extended period may be limited, especially after its previous experiences at the helm of the nation. Bangladesh was under military rule from 1975 to 1990, and the last military-backed government remained in power for two years until December 2008, when Hasina and her Awami League won a landslide victory in the elections.

3. Increasing likelihood of military withdrawal from politics:

It can be said that the military's experience in running the country in the past has given it some understanding that being at the forefront of politics may come at a significant cost to its public standing. During Sheikh Hasina's 15 years in power, the military made considerable efforts to distance itself from politics. This meant that Hasina generally had to rely on paramilitary police, including the notorious Rapid Action Battalion, to carry out much of her "dirty work." With the military returning to power, its primary function will be to stabilize the country and facilitate the creation of new political parties, preferably secular ones, that can take over. 

New Challenges

The challenges facing Bangladesh are not limited to student and civil movement concerns about potential military intervention or a prolonged transition period. There are also growing apprehensions related to the Awami League, which is not expected to easily accept its exclusion from the country's political equation. This could lead to further unrest, and the long-ruling party may split, especially since many of its senior members are closely associated with Sheikh Hasina. However, there is also a younger faction within the party, predominantly women, who will be eager to achieve progress.

1. Limited political alternatives:

Political alternatives in Bangladesh are limited. The main rival political party to the Awami League, the secular Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), has been weakened over the years. Its leader, Khaleda Zia, is ailing and has spent years in detention, and the BNP has largely lost its influence in the country. The more organized alternatives are various Islamic groups, including the banned Jamaat-e-Islami, which has remained out of politics for many years. However, there is a significant chance that an Islamist-led coalition could win the elections if held today, even though the military opposes these groups.

2. Possible change of regional equations/ balance/ calculations:

There is a strong possibility of alterations to the country’s foreign and regional policy with the change in Bangladesh's regime. The biggest loser in this context is likely to be Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who has had a long-standing personal relationship with Sheikh Hasina. Modi has long relied on Hasina to maintain stability in Bangladesh and counter Islamist influence, as well as its regional rival China. With Hasina's departure, Modi has now lost one of his closest allies in the region, further diminishing India's influence among nearly all its neighbors in South Asia, particularly as the United States and China seek to exploit Hasina's exit.

3. Fears of the crisis impacting Myanmar:

The situation in Myanmar, which borders Bangladesh, poses the greatest foreign policy challenge for Bangladesh. Chief among those is the possibility of new Rohingya refugee flows into Bangladesh, joining the 1.2 million who have already sought shelter in the country. The Arakan Army is engaged in fierce battles with Myanmar's ruling military council forces, and Sheikh Hasina's government largely remained detached from the conflict in Myanmar. However, Bangladesh's military may be inclined to take a more active role in Rakhine State, which could have unpredictable consequences for Bangladesh.

In conclusion, Bangladesh faces an extremely fragile situation and a transitional period that could be prolonged. The country will have to contend with potential foreign interventions, a complicated domestic scene, including the military's possible role in the conflict. There is also the issue of the rise of previously marginalized Islamist forces during Sheikh Hasina's rule. Thus, internal conflicts are likely to intensify in the coming period, and it is also possible that international powers will compete to exert influence over the new regime in the country, particularly the United States, which has praised the conduct of Bangladesh's military thus far.