Since the Houthi militias took over in September 21, 2014, the war in Yemen has employed hit- and- run tactics in several areas. Recently, however, they have increasingly resorted to escalation, aiming to gain control of Marib, which enjoys both a strategic position and a wealth of oil. They already succeeded in controlling the rest of Al-Bayda Governorate. On September 21, they took over Bayhan and Al-Ayn, then they controlled Assilan in Shabwah Governorate, thus encircling Marib from both the South and the East. After that, they took over Harib in Marib, and then on October 27, they captured Al-Juba, south of Marib. Earlier, they took over al-Abdiyah, whose inhabitants suffered a lot as a result.
Forces of the Yemeni state are fighting the Houthis on several fronts in Marib. This started last February, when the rebels conducted fierce attacks on the governorate, turning a deaf ear to international voices demanding that escalation be stopped. In fact, both regional and international circumstances seem to be motivating the Houthi militias to advance further.
Reasons for Escalation
Following is a brief discussion of the main reasons that have lately encouraged the Houthi militias to escalate their military operations and commit violations in Marib:
1. US pressure is weakened:
The Houthis have been encouraged by US President Joe Biden's decision to remove them from terrorist lists, attacking more and more of the areas which are under the control of the Yemeni state. Biden's attitude was actually puzzling, especially as it coincided with his decision to halt US support for offensive military operations conducted by the allied forces in Yemen.
2. The Arab Coalition is conducting fewer operations on several fronts:
Apart from some skirmishes, all is calm on most Yemeni fronts. This enabled the Houthis to move their warriors to the Marib front, with the aim of controlling more territories surrounding this oil-rich governorate. This attitude also puzzled those interested in the developments of the Yemeni crisis; nobody knows why the Arab Coalition decided to limit its operations, thus giving the Houthis a golden opportunity to outmaneuver it and focus on targeting Marib.
3. Marib’s oil resources:
Rich in oil as it is, Marib is expectedly an important Houthi target. Last February, Houthi leader Mohammed al-Bukhaiti tweeted that the Yemeni people is fighting its Armageddon whose fate depends on the Marib front. This shows that controlling the oil-rich Marib is one of the main goals of the Houthis.
4. Iran is supporting the Houthis:
The Yemeni rebels receive military and logistic support from Iran. Besides, they develop missiles and drones under the supervision of experts from Iran and Hezbollah. In return, they have to follow Iranian dictates. Tehran is using the Yemeni file to serve its own purposes, turning a blind eye to Yemeni human casualties.
5. Houthis have a 'militia' mentality:
This is actually an important reason for the escalation in Yemen, and it is deeply-rooted, rather than temporary, in the situation there. The rebels have a militia mentality, which gives them reason to believe that no one but so-called Hashemites can rule Yemen, since, according to Houthis, they have a 'divine right' to do so. As a matter of fact, this belief is the main obstacle in the way of Yemeni peace; Houthis will not accept a peace that puts them on equal footing with other Yemenis, or force them to be part of a peaceful transfer of power via elections.
Regional and International Contexts
As far as Houthis are concerned, the attitudes of major forces, notably the USA, are more influential than those of regional forces. This particularly applies to the latest developments in Marib.
Following is a discussion of these attitudes:
1. US stance has changed since Biden became president:
The change in the US administration has had an important effect on the Yemeni file. Biden openly sympathized with the Houthis, and soon removed them from terrorist lists. He also halted support for the Arab Coalition. US's new stance has complicated the situation even further, as it is well-known that it is the Houthis, with their 'divine right' beliefs which conflict with human rights, who actually hinder the peace process.
The Houthis have ruled despotically since they took over in 2014. Instead of urging them to change their views and embrace democracy, the US is aiding them in escalating the situation and achieving their goals. It is now obvious that Biden's calls for peace in Yemen are to no avail. No progress was made on this path, though a year has passed since he announced that it would be a US top priority. It is true that the US appointed a special envoy for Yemen, who visited several countries in the region with the aim of reaching a political solution to the Yemeni crisis. However, the new administration did not put real pressure on the Houthis so that they should abide by UN resolutions.
2. EU and Britain are reiterating peace calls:
European parties insist on adopting this stance, though they are well aware that peace cannot be achieved because of the Houthis' ideological beliefs and ties with Iran. Europe is simply calling for peace without exercising any serious pressure on the Yemeni rebels, who, as a result, are escalating on all fronts, especially Marib. In this respect, we must not forget the 2018 Stockholm Agreement, which was violated by the Houthis.
3. The UN is seeking to manage the conflict instead of putting pressure on the unyielding party:
As a result, the Houthis are going on with their plans, and more Yemeni blood is shed every day. In the past two years, the prime concern of the Arab Coalition and the forces of the Yemeni state was to repel the Houthis' attacks on all fronts rather than attack. The lenient UN attitude encouraged the Houthis (and, consequently, Iran) to attack whenever and wherever they want, though Yemen has supposedly abided, since 2015, by Chapter VII of the Charter of the United Nations (UN). This Chapter gives the UN the right to take whatever measures necessary for ending the conflict, including taking military action against the party that is opposed to restoring constitutional legitimacy according to the GCC initiative, the outcomes of the national dialogue, and relevant UN resolutions, notably Resolution 2216 of April 14, 2015.
The fact that Hans Grundberg is the fourth special envoy for Yemen clearly indicates that the UN has failed to find a solution to the Yemeni crisis. It also highlights the weakness of the UN stance, as well as the disagreement between major forces, especially the permanent members of the Security Council. The situation is even worsened by the fact that the major powers insist on acting independently of their collective roles as members of the UN, which is supposed to keep international peace via its conventions. This has rendered the UN all the weaker.
4. HCR refused to renew the mandate of a group of experts on October 7, 2021:
This resolution shows that some UN experts are lax in dealing with the deteriorating situation in Yemen, and are unwilling to put any pressures on the Houthis or adopt a strong stance against their militias with the aim of alleviating the suffering of the Yemeni people, though it is known that these rebels appropriate humanitarian aid and force people to pay money to be used in buying arms or financing religious festivals meant to stress the exclusive right of so-called Hashemites to rule Yemen.
5. The Saudi-Iranian dialogue is going on:
According to reports, four consultative rounds of talks between Saudi Arabia and Iran have been held so far. Though these talks have not yet managed to bear fruit, they have given the Houthis the false impression that Saudi Arabia has come to believe that the Houthis are invincible and, therefore, it began to consider peace as an option. The truth, however, is that KSA is adopting a highly conservative, even pessimistic, attitude in its talks with Iran.
6. The Yemen crisis is linked to Iran's nuclear negotiations with the West:
It is but natural that Iran will apparently make no significant concessions in these negotiations, since Biden does not seem willing to put pressure on it. The messages which the current US administration is sending to Iran and the Houthis are similar, as both seem to serve Iran's interests and help strengthen its relationship with the Houthis. The Houthis understood that the US is associating the Yemen crisis with Iran's nuclear talks, and considered this as the green light they needed to go on escalating their attacks on Marib, and even launching consecutive drone attacks on Saudi depth, so that their pressures can be used by Iran as leverage in the nuclear talks.
In the light of the foregoing, one can say that the Houthi escalation on the Marib front over the past weeks was the result of a lenient international attitude. Several regional and international parties have been, wittingly or unwittingly, sending messages that are interpreted by the Houthis as a green light. It must be noted that neither the fall of Marib nor the fall of any other region will bring about peace in Yemen. The key to Yemeni peace is the following: the Houthis must give up their stubbornness and elusiveness, as well as their 'divine right' thing. They must, in other words, believe that all Yemenis are equal. Otherwise, the war in Yemen will go on for years, if not for decades.
