On May 15, 2024, Slovakia's Prime Minister, Robert Fico, was shot following a government meeting in the city of Handelova. The country's Interior Ministry described the event as an "assassination" attempt. Slovakian authorities arrested a 71-year-old man in connection with the attack. 

Preliminary information suggests that the suspect, a retired poet and novelist, previously worked as a mall security guard and had participated in anti-government protests. Although there is no evidence linking him to any terrorist organizations or extremist groups, a video released eight years ago shows that the suspect founded a politically-motivated movement against violence, a video released eight years ago reveals that the suspect founded a politically-motivated movement against violence, which suggests that his attack on Fico can be described as "lone wolf terrorism."

Simultaneous Contexts

The assassination attempt against the Prime Minister of Slovakia is connected to several events and political circumstances both within and outside the country. Among the most significant factors are:

The election of Fico’s ally to the presidency: The attempt occurred shortly after Peter Pellegrini was elected as the President of Slovakia, succeeding Zuzana Caputova, who was an opposition leader to Fico. This also coincided with Fico's decisions regarding the dismantlement of Slovakia's public broadcasting corporation RTVS and its replacement with a state-run body. These actions caused internal tension to escalate, leading to public marches against Fico's policies.

Fico’s refusal to send weapons to Ukraine: Fico took a firm stance against involving Slovakia in efforts to send ammunition shipments to Ukraine. He also expressed on more than one occasion his country’s refusal to have Ukraine join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), stressing that he would use his veto power to prevent Kiev's membership. It is worth noting that Fico pursued closer relations with Russia and Belarus, and sought to achieve a balance in foreign policies in line with Slovakia’s national interests. In March 2022, Slovakia suspended cooperation with Russia and Belarus following the invasion of Ukraine, only for the country’s Ministry of Culture to reverse the decision in January 2024. 

A divided European position on Ukraine: The attempt on Prime Minister Fico's life took place before the European Parliament elections scheduled for June 2024. It also coincided with the Russian escalation in Ukraine, the aggravation of the Western/Russian rift, the division within the European continent regarding the provision of forces and arms to Ukraine, and the United States' decision to supply aid to Ukraine.

Interconnected Motives  

It is presumed that the attempt to assassinate Fico has political dimensions linked to his position on the Russian war in Ukraine, which can be detailed as follows:

Initial confessions: Slovakia's Interior Minister, Matos Sutaj Istok, indicated that Fico's shooter was frustrated with the actions of the country's Cabinet. The suspect allegedly rejected the termination of military aid to Ukraine, interference in the work of public television, and the resignation of the head of the Judicial Council.

Robert Fico’s political background:  Robert Fico is the longest-serving Prime Minister of Slovakia and was elected for a fourth term in 2023. Some reports indicate that he is a polarizing figure. While his supporters view him as a freedom fighter who challenges public institutions and Europe's bureaucracy, his critics portray him as a would-be autocrat bent on tearing down the public institutions they hold dear and a threat to democracy.

The 59-year-old PM has a long political history. After joining the Communist Party in the 1980s, Fico became a member of parliament in 1992. He then co-founded his leftist nationalist party, known as Smer. Fico served as prime minister from 2006 to 2010 and again from 2012 to 2018. 

In 2018, Fico was forced to resign due to a political crisis triggered by the murder of investigative journalist Jan Kuciak. Kuciak was investigating a corruption case involving high-ranking officials. Despite being charged with organized crimes in 2022, Fico's immunity as a member of parliament prevented his arrest. He denied the charges, instead blaming "criminal structures" within the police force.

Fico managed to rebuild his image and was reelected as prime minister for the fourth time in September 2023.

His internal policies: Fico's populist rhetoric and national policy are likely to be catalysts for the attempt on his life. Some describe Fico's speeches as hate speech, inciting internal polarization. In response, he launched an attack against the country's journalistic community and media, referring to them (along with immigrants) as an "organized crime group." Fico also promised to take a tough stance against non-governmental organizations and campaigned against same-sex marriage, labeling it a "deviation."

During the Covid-19 pandemic, while not occupying his official post, Fico opposed the country's lockdown policies and was arrested during one of the many anti-government marches he led at the time. In his fourth term, Fico heads a coalition government with a political program that includes the abolition of a major anti-corruption office, the public broadcaster "RTVS," and plans to amend the penal code.

His position on foreign affairs: Fico's positions on foreign affairs have strained his relations with the European Union. Despite Slovakia's membership in NATO since 2004, Fico opposes certain policies of the alliance, particularly those concerning the war in Ukraine. Despite the close proximity between Slovakia and Ukraine, Fico's government has halted arms shipments to Ukraine. Fico even launched a campaign with the slogan "Not Another Round of Ammunition." Additionally, Slovakia's government declined to join the Czech-led coalition, consisting of approximately 20 countries, in purchasing military aid for Ukraine. However, they did support Hungary in its efforts to block EU aid packages to the war-torn country. Nevertheless, Slovakia has recently softened its stance, affirming that it will not impede Ukraine's application to join the European Union as a member state.

Another point of contention is Fico's position on the EU's immigration policies. In 2016, the Prime Minister argued that the concept of a multicultural Europe had failed and that the natural integration of people with different ways of life was not feasible.

Direct Repercussions

The recent attack on Fico has generated significant reactions both domestically and internationally. Despite the controversy surrounding his personality and policies, condemnation of the attack has come from both his allies and opponents.

Widespread foreign condemnation: Ursula von der Leyen, the President of the European Commission, described it as a "despicable attack." German Chancellor Olaf Scholz expressed his shock at the incident, while British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak expressed solidarity with the premier and his family. US President Joe Biden condemned the act and confirmed ongoing communication between the US embassy and the Slovakian government. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky also condemned the violence against the neighboring country's head of government. Russian President Vladimir Putin referred to the shooting as "brutal" and expressed hope that Robert Fico's bravery and strong-mindedness would help him overcome this difficult situation.

Internal solidarity: The assassination attempt on Fico sparked a sense of solidarity among the deeply divided political leaders in Slovakia. Zuzana Caputova, the outgoing Slovak president and Fico's rival, urged an end to the "vicious circle of hatred and mutual accusations." Fico's allies, on the other hand, criticized the country's media and opposition for allegedly fueling tensions.

In response to the incident, the main opposition party in Slovakia decided to cancel a planned protest against Fico's media censorship plans. Additionally, President-elect Peter Pellegrini called for political parties to suspend or reduce their campaigns for the upcoming European elections, scheduled from June 6 to 9, in order to prevent "confrontations and mutual accusations between politicians."

Possible Effects 

The failed assassination attempt on the Prime Minister of Slovakia is expected to have several effects, including:

Consolidation of hate speech and polarization at home: The attack on Slovakia's Prime Minister carries a dangerous connotation, as it signifies the culmination of hate speech and represents the political and social divisions that afflict the country. This incident may lead to a more precarious security situation and exacerbate internal tensions and disagreements within Slovak society, despite the temporary displays of solidarity with Fico.

Consolidating security dealings with the opposition: This attack is likely to usher a security crackdown against the opposition under the pretext of curbing violence. This, in turn, may increase the hardening of the opposition’s stance in the face of the Slovak government

Fear of the spread of political assassinations: There are concerns that political assassinations could become more prevalent in Europe, particularly in countries experiencing a rise in extreme right-wing ideologies and the use of hate speech in politics and society. This is a significant issue because these attacks are often carried out by individuals acting alone, making them less predictable and costly compared to organized extremist groups that require more planning and access to heavy weaponry.

In conclusion, the recent attack on the Slovak Prime Minister is a concerning sign of a resurgence in violence and political assassinations in Europe, particularly in the eastern region. This incident not only has implications for domestic politics, potentially strengthening the opposition, but also has the potential to impact foreign affairs. Both the European side and Russia may intensify their efforts to gain influence in Slovakia, as evidenced by Fico's positions towards both parties. This sentiment is further supported by the denunciations of the incident by European leaders and Russia, who have labeled it as an unacceptable act of terrorism.