Donald Trump will be inaugurated as the 47th president of the United States on January 20th, 2025. His victory marks an historic achievement, as the Republican candidate exceptionally won both the electoral and popular vote. Adding to the unprecedented nature of his election is the fact that Trump has been indicted on 34 felony convictions and faces prosecution in other state and federal cases. The United States has never before seen a criminal defendant elected to the highest office, nor an ex-president criminally charged until last year.
Trump has a number of books attributed to his name since 1987, with the enduring theme consistently being himself. Although there is no particular intellectual theory or conceptual basis for his thought, one can nonetheless safely conclude that he strongly believes everything has a price. During his first term as president, Trump relied heavily on network television and commercial media as major sources to remain informed of global and national events, rather than foundational historical resources, scholarly material, or verified data, according to his own account. Former staff have repeatedly affirmed his capricious and mercurial nature, making him the target of constant jockeying for those wanting to have his ear.
Understanding how Trump thinks is invaluable, given that his decisions as president have national and global consequences. Critics amongst the Democrats in America and across Western Europe vehemently accuse him of debasing the rules-based order for international relations that they claim to be promoting. Ironically, their double standards were much more lethal to any semblance of a rules-based order—far worse than Trump's often bombastic rhetoric. Notably, Trump's reiterations and nominations all demonstrate that in his second term, he will go all out towards implementing his beliefs, with little consideration towards other opinions in his party or beyond.
Significant Repercussions
I truly believe that Donald S. Trump has an opportunity to define and shape the future of international relations. The question remains whether his impact will have catastrophic consequences or historically transformative positive ones. As a one-term president, Trump will leave an indelible mark through his actions, inactions, successes, and failures. His "America First" focus will significantly affect geopolitics, while his application of economic tariffs on friends and foes alike will have serious ramifications on the free-market system and international institutions long propagated by the West. Trump's position on climate change threatens to unsettle an already precarious effort to achieve global consensus and generate support for developed countries in their transition. Moreover, two pressing issues will have a particular impact on Trump's legacy: the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East.
Unusual Approaches
From a macro perspective, Trump's parameters on world affairs can be characterized by several key aspects. Firstly, he prioritized geoeconomics over geopolitics, placing a strong emphasis on economic return and cost. This approach was coupled with an "America First" isolationist stance, which featured constrained global military engagement. As a result, the Trump legacy can be described as short-term and transactional in nature. Lastly, Trump's approach to international relations was marked by pragmatic deal-making, which focused on the concept of winners and losers rather than moral considerations of right and wrong.
Donald Trump is not a war monger, but rather a proponent of deal-making. In the realm of international relations, this approach is often equated with diplomacy. However, Trump's method is highly personal and not traditionally dependent on diplomatic institutions. While this approach remains preferable to excessive use of force, its weakness lies in Trump's tendency to cynically and abrasively favor the strong and powerful at the expense of rights or accommodating the bereaved.
Expectations for Ukraine
On Ukraine, incoming national security advisor Mike Waltz recently wrote that fighting "as long as it takes in a war of attrition against a larger power is a recipe for failure." Close associates have opined that assistance to Ukraine should be conditioned on Kyiv entering peace talks with Russia, suggesting negotiations based on current frontlines. Moreover, they propose delaying Ukraine's much-wanted entry into NATO.
Repeated comments have emerged about the need for Kyiv to temper expectations regarding Russia's withdrawal from territories it controls in Eastern Ukraine. Trump's approach appears focused on ensuring Ukraine's security rather than preserving its territorial integrity. He has been vocal about NATO members not carrying their weight in the alliance, causing serious concern among members about how its deterrent effect will now be perceived by hostile leaders. In light of these developments, it is noteworthy that the German Chancellor recently initiated a long phone call with President Putin.
Stance towards the Middle East
Besides claiming he would end the Ukraine war in one day, Trump promised to bring peace to the Middle East. Strongly aligned with Israeli policies, he has not truly engaged Palestinian leadership but maintains strong connections with several Arab leaders. His rejected "deal of the century" proposed allocating about 30% of occupied territory to Palestinians as part of an economic package, with the Abraham accords associated with this proposal. Despite these efforts, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu did not follow through with a formal approval of a two-state solution, even on Trump's terms.
The outstanding golden ring for Trump's first term was an equivalent Abraham accord with Saudi Arabia— a feat even the Biden administration was unsuccessful with. After the tragedies in Gaza, achieving this goal will be an even greater challenge. Saudi Arabia has openly stated that the establishment of a Palestinian state is a condition sine qua non for peace with Israel.
Trump has already expressed his desire for the violence in Gaza and Lebanon to end before his inauguration. Ending the violence, a priority for the incoming administration, will require a delicate balancing act. This act must involve the right-wing spectrum of Israel's body politic, Hamas and the Palestinian Authority, Iran and Saudi Arabia, as well as Egypt, Jordan, Syria, and other actors in the region whose national interests are at stake.
The situation presents an all-or-nothing paradigm, raising the question of whether Trump will pursue a grand bargain and complete closure, or choose to focus on intermittent limited achievements in ending hostilities while claiming them as grand bargains. The forthcoming president's interest in striking a deal can be engaging and—if successful—historic. However, Trump's tendency to ignore right and wrong in favor of wealth or power could entail a heavy cost on Palestinian and Arab rights, as the occupied parties.
In conclusion, Trump's "Deal of the Century II" may include significantly less than the territory of Gaza and the West Bank, based on his past practices in the Middle East and statements on Ukraine. To offset this reduction, an affiliation with Jordan could be proposed, accommodating Israeli rejection of a separate sovereign Palestinian state while enabling Israel to retain control of significant parts of the West Bank. Simultaneously, the establishment of a symbolic Palestinian state might encourage Arab states to help manage Gaza and facilitate wider Israeli normalization in the region.
Should Trump succeed in ending conflicts and bringing legitimate peace to Ukraine and the Arab-Israeli conflict, he will have enshrined diplomacy as the most effective tool for conflict resolution. Conversely, if his non-traditional efforts fail, even while favoring balances of power over legitimate rights, he risks destroying the tenets of international law governing territorial disputes and national conflicts. Such an outcome could have dire consequences on the world order and international relations for generations to come.
Only time will tell which scenario will unfold.
