New Caledonia is an archipelago of 12 islands located in the South Pacific Ocean, approximately 1500 kilometers from the eastern coast of Australia. The first encounter between the indigenous people of these islands, the Kanak people, and Europeans occurred in 1774, when English sailors reached the shores of Grande-Terre, the main island of the archipelago. They christened it New Caledonia in homage to Caledonia, the Latin name for Scotland.
In 1853, the Second French Empire, under Napoleon III, sought to establish a penal colony and strengthen French presence in the South Pacific, leading to the systematic colonization of New Caledonia. The local population was compelled to embrace Christianity and adapt to French customs and language, while the local monarchies were abolished. The 18 islands were formally annexed into the French Colonial Empire in 1860. Subsequently, in 1945, after the Second World War, the colonial status was abolished, and New Caledonia became an integral part of France as one of its overseas territories. The Kanak people were granted French citizenship and gradually obtained the right to vote.
More recently, political unrest in New Caledonia resulted in riots and violence following the proposed enactment of a controversial new law. The archipelago was plunged into a violent crisis due to a recent attempt to modify French voting lists in New Caledonia. Given the recent events in this French overseas territory, it is pertinent to ponder the roots of this crisis and its relevance in the context of global politics today. Considering France's extensive colonial history and various decolonization conflicts such as Indochina or Algeria, one might question whether the New Caledonia crisis marks the culmination of France's colonial conflicts or signifies a conflict of a different nature.
New Caledonia: A Strategic Territory and Asset for France
New Caledonia holds significant strategic importance for France, serving as a key element of its Asia Pacific strategy. Against the backdrop of the American "pivot to Asia" and the rise of China as a global political, economic, and military power, the Asia Pacific region has become a focal point for powers across the globe. France, aiming to maintain its status as a global power, leverages its expansive territory to assert its presence as a key player in various regions, particularly in the Pacific Ocean. As a French territory, New Caledonia accommodates a substantial French military presence, encompassing naval and air force bases. These installations play a crucial role in enhancing France's capability to project power and exert influence in the region.
Economically, New Caledonia also holds significant importance. The archipelago boasts one of the world's most substantial nickel reserves, and its maritime resources are abundant. Moreover, the territory offers France a valuable maritime foothold in the Pacific Ocean. Geographically situated in the South Pacific, New Caledonia holds a strategic position between major economic and military powers. Its location serves as a crucial vantage point for monitoring and safeguarding maritime routes, which are indispensable for international trade and military operations. Given the pivotal economic and geopolitical role played by New Caledonia, France maintains a profound attachment to this territory, despite the challenges posed by independence movements seeking to emancipate New Caledonia.
The Historical Root of the New Caledonia Crisis
Since 1945, New Caledonia has been fully integrated into France and is considered a French overseas territory. This integration gave rise to a clear opposition between independence supporters and loyalists. Tensions escalated in the 1980s, culminating in the 1988 Ouvea Cave hostage crisis, during which independentists killed four police officers and took 27 police officers and a public prosecutor hostage. They demanded talks with the French government about the independence of New Caledonia. The shock of this violent act prompted the government to launch the "Pact Trentenaire" in 1988, a new policy aimed at the economic, cultural, and political development of New Caledonia and the Kanak people.
To support Kanak culture and development, new Kanak cultural centers and a public office for the development of Kanak culture were established. A new local administrative elite was trained to govern the territory, and various development and economic policies were implemented to address unemployment. Additionally, new schools and a new campus of the University of New Caledonia were opened. These policies culminated in the signing of the Noumea Accord in 1998, which granted greater political autonomy to New Caledonia and set the stage for a referendum on independence to be held between 2014 and 2018.
In addition, in strict respect to the UN principal of Self-determination, the Noumea Accord indicated that in case of a negative answer to the referendum on the independence of New Caledonia, a second one should be organised and a third one if a negative answer was given to the second one. To guarantee the self-determination of the Kanak people, the voters list has been frozen to allowed only citizens registered on the voters list at the time of the Noumea Accord in 1998 would be allowed to vote. This benefited the Kanak population as it prevented French citizens from other region of the country who settled in New Caledonia to vote on the self-determination referendum. This has been the case as the Congress of New Caledonia set the date of the first self-determination referendum on the 4th of November 2018 which resulted in 56.4% of the voter to respond “no”, therefore affirming their desire to remain part of France. A second referendum was set on the 6th of September 2020, resulting once again in 53,24% of voters affirming their attachment to France. The third and last self-determination referendum was set on the 12th of December 2021. For this referendum, the independentists parties called on the boycott of the vote which resulted in an ever-low participation rate of 44% of voters. Nonetheless, 96% expressed their desire to remain French.
The freezing of the voters' list, however, has sparked a legal debate. It has led to the disenfranchisement of numerous French citizens residing in the archipelago, depriving them of their constitutional right to vote. Ferdinand Mélin-Soucramanien elucidated, "The European Court of Human Rights validated the freezing of the voters' list only because it was part of a decolonization process and under the condition that this measure was transitory. The same stance was taken by the Conseil Constitutionnel and the Conseil d’Etat (France’s highest jurisdictions), which repeatedly emphasized that this situation could not be prolonged indefinitely”. Consequently, in the wake of three referendums expressing the desire to remain part of France, the French Minister of the Interior, Gerald Darmanin, decided to introduce a new law aimed at unfreezing the voters' list in New Caledonia. This move has ignited a rebellion in the archipelago, as proponents of independence vehemently oppose this new law, viewing it as a fresh colonial tactic by the French government to render the native population a political minority in the land of their ancestors.
External Influences at Play
While the ongoing crisis is legally defined as an internal matter, it is influenced by several external powers. Notably, the US-China competition has cast a significant shadow over the region, exposing a vulnerability in the Western presence in the Asia Pacific. Graeme Smith, a Pacific analyst at the Australian National University, pointed out that the use of force by French authorities in Noumea could inadvertently strengthen China's leveraging of the colonial legacy of Western nations in the Pacific, including French and American nuclear testing.
In fact, for years, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has cultivated strong ties with the primary Kanak independence party, the Socialist National Liberation Front. This alignment with an anti-colonial narrative reflects China's ongoing efforts to forge closer relations with Non-Aligned Movement countries and solidify its influence in the Global South. The escalating influence of China in the Asia Pacific presents a direct challenge to American interests in the region, sparking a comprehensive Chinese campaign aimed at destabilizing the USA and its regional allies such as Japan, South Korea, Taiwan (for reasons including the desire for reunification), and of course, France.
Therefore, it is foreseeable that China would seek to capitalize on this crisis to further undermine France's position in the South Pacific.
Furthermore, Russia has been exhibiting a similar reaction to the crisis, albeit for different reasons. Engaged in the conflict in Ukraine, primarily due to Western military backing of the Kyiv regime, Russia is systematically destabilizing NATO nations in Europe, Africa, and the Asia-Pacific region. The opposition between France and Russia did not originate with the New Caledonia crisis, as Russia has been opposing French interests across Africa, with the deployment of Wagner militia in the Central African Republic in 2018, in Mali in 2022, and the initiation of numerous misinformation campaigns against France since then. However, Russia's stance on the New Caledonia crisis represents a new development, as it involves an internal crisis that could place Russia in a position of interference according to international law. This has taken the form of a misinformation campaign, as well as more serious unconventional warfare methods, with French authorities tracing an "unprecedented" cyberattack in New Caledonia to IP addresses in Russia.
Additionally, apart from the more well-known countries, there are also less conspicuous actors involved in this crisis, such as Azerbaijan. Following the conflict in the Azeri territory of the Karabagh region, predominantly inhabited by an Armenian minority, France condemned the position of the Azeri government and backed the self-proclaimed Artsakh republic. This led to a significant deterioration in the political and diplomatic relations between the two nations. In response, Azerbaijan underwent a shift in its Foreign Policy and opposed France in various regions across the world, particularly in Africa, where French influence has been waning. This policy of destabilization has also been evident in New Caledonia.
Indeed, in 2023, Azerbaijan launched the Baku Initiative Group, which aims to "support the fight against colonialism and neocolonialism." Azerbaijan extended its support to several pro-independence political parties from different French regions and territories. As a sign of this support, the French government took note of social media posts depicting rioters in New Caledonia waving Azerbaijan flags, which led to the banning of TikTok in the territory.
Conclusion
In conclusion, while it might be tempting to simplify the current issues in New Caledonia as a neo-colonial conflict, the situation is far more complex and multifaceted. On one hand, the strategic importance of New Caledonia, both economically and geopolitically, makes it a valuable asset for France, which understandably aims to retain control over the territory. On the other hand, the three self-determination referendums held since 2018, all of which resulted in the reaffirmation of the desire to remain a French territory, solidify the legal legitimacy of the loyalists. However, it is undeniable that the roots of this conflict lie deeply in France's colonial history and the history of the Kanak people. Moreover, the China-US rivalry further complicates the political landscape in New Caledonia. Pro-independence movements may seek to align with China or Russia as a counterbalance to French influence, while anti-independence factions are likely to align more closely with Western powers to maintain the status quo.
