The European Union aims to strengthen its involvement in the Sudanese crisis. This was recently evident when Brussels welcomed a delegation of Sudanese political leaders on July 27, 2023. This effort aims to establish an active European role in the endeavors to settle the Sudanese crisis.
Brussels' Moves
Recently, the EU made moves to bolster the European role in the Sudanese crisis. This can be presented as follows:
1. Sudanese delegation's visit to Brussels:
A high-level delegation, comprised of leaders from "The Forces of Freedom and Change" as well as representatives of several political parties, armed movements, and civil society entities, arrived in Brussels on July 27, 2023, in response to an invitation from the European Union. The purpose of the visit was to engage in consultations regarding how to achieve an agreement for a ceasefire between the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces, or RSF. This action reflects a facet of the current European approaches aiming to bolster Europe's influence in the Sudanese crisis and safeguard the European interests in the African country.
2. New European sanctions:
The European Union is currently drafting a new framework for sanctions targeting actors involved in the ongoing conflict in Sudan. This framework includes travel bans, asset freezes, and restrictions on the bank accounts of the involved parties. Expected to be finalized by September 2023, the package of actions will be followed by the preparation of a list of individuals and companies targeted by the sanctions. This reflects a growing concern among European countries about the ongoing repercussions of the conflict between the country's army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces.
The European Union had previously imposed sanctions on individuals and entities associated with the Russian Wagner group and its activities in Africa, including Sudan. However, the anticipated new sanctions framework is expected to target both parties to the conflict in Sudan to pressure them into accepting a political settlement.
3. Allocation of additional aid:
The European Union has announced the allocation of 10 million euros in additional humanitarian assistance to Chad to help the country meet the needs of individuals fleeing the conflict in Sudan. Before that, during meetings in Geneva in June 2023, the EU committed 7 million euros in humanitarian aid to respond to the Sudanese crisis.
Significant Implications
The current European movements regarding the Sudanese crisis and Europe's efforts to enhance its engagement in conflict resolution carry a set of important implications that can be presented as follows:
1. Strengthening European influence in Africa:
Several European powers have growing aspirations to enhance their presence in the African continent as a whole, particularly in Sudan. These countries are leveraging the conflict in Khartoum to solidify their own influence within Sudan at a time when European interests in the Sahel region are diminishing, especially following the recent military coup in Niger.
2. Attempts to manage migration wave:
Sudan has been a prominent transit point for refugees and irregular migrants from the Horn of Africa en route to Europe. Consequently, Khartoum has played a pivotal role in the European Union's policies put in place to combat irregular migration over the past decade, especially following the launch of the European Union's "Khartoum Process" in the African Horn in 2014. This highlights Sudan's crucial involvement in managing the issue of irregular migration and influencing the European Union's migration policies.
Because of the ongoing conflict in Sudan, concerns are raised about a potential exacerbation of a noticeable increase in the rate of irregular migration across the Mediterranean Sea. European countries are concerned about a potential new influx of migrants in the coming period.
This coincides with an unwelcoming atmosphere for migrants within Europe, reflected in the strict immigration policies adopted by certain European countries, particularly Italy and the United Kingdom. Consequently, European nations aim to enhance their involvement in the conflict in Sudan. They are attempting to mediate a settlement to prevent the conflict from negatively impacting the Sudanese government's ability to control its borders, which could, in turn, lead to an influx of refugees and irregular migrants into Europe.
3. Reinvigorating Europe's role:
European diplomats are making an effort to reinvigorate the bloc's role in conflict resolution and international and regional crises. Reports suggest that Brussels may be working on proposing an alternative path aimed at reaching a settlement and halting the ongoing fighting in Khartoum between the army and the Rapid Support Forces. However, these efforts might be hindered by limited tools for exerting pressure on the parties to the conflict, which could significantly diminish the effectiveness of these efforts.
Limitations of the European Role
A report published by the German network Deutsche Welle in early July 2023 criticized the limited European role in the ongoing conflict in Sudan, asserting that Brussels is pursuing a strategy of "neglect" towards this crisis. This is also reflected in Western media's lack of interest in covering the ongoing conflict in Khartoum, despite its potential repercussions on European Union member states. The limitations of Europe's role in the Sudanese crisis may be attributed to several key dynamics, which can be presented as follows:
1. Conflicting European interests:
The absence of a clear and unified European strategy towards engaging with Africa, including the ongoing conflict in Sudan, is due to conflicting and sometimes overlapping interests of European countries, particularly France and Italy. Each nation independently seeks to enhance its influence in the continent, significantly impacting the effectiveness of the pan-European role in Africa.
2. European preoccupation with internal crises:
In recent years, Europe has become increasingly focused on dealing with internal crises facing the Union member states, including the Covid-19 pandemic and the Russo-Ukrainian war. As a result, European policy priorities have predominantly focused on internal crises, leading to a diminished emphasis on the European Union's foreign policy. The change has undermined the effectiveness of Europe's external role, as evidenced during the crisis in Sudan. Thus far, Europe's policy has mainly focused on condemning the violations committed during the conflict and attempting to provide humanitarian aid to victims and displaced individuals.
3. Escalating global competition:
The escalating intensity of global competition in Africa, particularly the increasing engagement of Russia and China in the continent, poses a significant challenge to the durability of European influence there. This has been clearly reflected in the successive setbacks to France's presence in the Sahel and West Africa. Concurrently, resistance is growing within African countries to the continuation of Western influence, particularly that of France. The case of Sudan is no exception, where the complex network of regional and international actors involved in the crisis poses a real challenge for any potential European role in the conflict.
Potential Implications
Given the aforementioned dynamics, several potential implications may impact the European role in Sudan in the upcoming period. These can be outlined as follows:
1. Increased European engagement:
The coming period may witness heightened European engagement in the Sudanese crisis, potentially leading to Brussels presenting a new initiative for conflict resolution. However, European actions seem to be primarily focused on the political dimension within Sudan, which contrasts American efforts aiming to broker an agreement between the conflicting parties. Western reports indicate that civil society and resistance committees remain active on the ground in Sudan, along with tribal leaders working to prevent the conflict from devolving into tribal disputes.
Based on this, European actions in Sudan do not seem to conflict with American efforts to broker an agreement between the army and the Rapid Support Forces. The European initiative relies on Washington's ability to reach an agreement between the conflicting parties to end the fighting as a first step. Subsequently, a new framework could be introduced to establish a civilian government in the country.
2. Comprehensive European strategy:
Some assessments suggest that certain European powers may be inclined to formulate a comprehensive European strategy towards the Sahel region of Africa, including Sudan. This inclination arises from the continuous and ongoing decline of European influence in the region. France is expected to lead the push towards adopting this strategy, especially given several Western reports that do not rule out the possibility of Paris considering military engagement in Niger following the recent military coup that ousted France's ally, President Mohamed Bazoum.
Similarly, the comprehensive European strategy is expected to incorporate additional mechanisms to enhance Europe's role in the Sudanese crisis and engage in mediation efforts to achieve a ceasefire. This may involve exerting more pressure on the conflicting parties. However, it could prove challenging, considering Europe's redirection of military resources to Ukraine and Brussel's substantial spending to support Kyiv both economically and militarily.
In conclusion, despite the European Union's recent efforts to play a role in the Sudanese crisis, the bloc's role remains significantly limited. Most assessments exclude the possibility of European actions leading to significant progress in resolving the conflict in Sudan, particularly due to the limited influence of the European role within the dynamics of the internal scene in Khartoum. These assessments suggest that the current European momentum in Sudan might be only temporary unless a comprehensive and cohesive European strategy towards Africa as a whole is adopted – a prospect that seems to have slim chances of becoming a reality.
