Change is amongst the few, possibly the sole definitive reality and the constant force that shapes the global geopolitical scene. Its magnitude and pace may vary, and its ultimate result, determined by numerous factors, always has remnants of the past and indications of the future.
Today, rapid and simultaneous change is occurring globally, regionally, and nationally, as a consequence inter alia of continuing technological advancement, be that in communications, extensive connectivity, and globalization. These developments have rampant implications on market access, information exchange, and beyond. Additionally, various domestic and region-oriented factors, such as, but not exclusively, strategic geographic location, youthful demographics, economic status, and disparities, as well as ethnic homogeneity or diversity, are contributing to the evolving landscape.
Change & Resistance in the MENA
The shifting polarity of the international system and the challenge of the resurgence of identities in globally interconnected civilizations and cultures have had consequential implications on regional states’ relations. These developments have also played a crucial role in determining domestic orders and stability.
In a rapidly changing world, the Middle East, a region long in history, diverse in culture, and rich in tradition, is no exception. The region has consistently experienced change, yet it has frequently been slow to accommodate these winds when they did not emanate from within.
Historically, Middle Eastern states have consistently emphasized strong relations with major foreign countries as a prominent pillar of their foreign policies. Most of North Africa, including Mauritania, Morocco, Algeria, and Tunis, has had a focus on relations with Western Europe. On the other hand, countries located eastwards and mostly on the Mediterranean in Libya, Egypt, Israel, Palestine, Turkey, Syria, Jordan, and Iraq, have tended to focus more on balancing relations with the United States and Russia at different times. Meanwhile, the Arab Gulf countries have maintained close relations with the Western world.
Consequently, as the international order undergoes periods of disarray or transformation, the interests of the region's states and their geopolitical posture are directly and significantly impacted.
With the current global shift towards multi-polarity, there is a clear and positive trend in the Arab World towards expanding and rebalancing relations. This shift represents a departure from previous alignment patterns and a desire to diversify partnerships in response to changing geopolitical realities.
Among the most prominent, but not exclusive, international expansion is the Middle Eastern states further developing their relations with China and Russia. This demonstrates the Arab World's willingness to forge new ties and diversify their relations as a way to enhance economic opportunities, security cooperation, and diplomatic influence on the global stage.
Another important commonality amongst the Middle Eastern States is, regrettably, most of the states are involved in a "political or border dispute" with one or more of their neighbours. The region has mostly been wise not to confrontationally address these issues, but being "dispute prone" ultimately limits regional cooperation as states constantly calibrate regional relations, creating a complex regional manoeuvring environment.
The constant regional manoeuvring is amongst the reasons for the absence of a region-wide Middle Eastern intergovernmental organization. Even the League of Arab States, with the broadest membership, faces increasing challenges in effectiveness, and sub-regional organizations work overtime to achieve their goals.
These characteristics are prevalent across most Middle Eastern states, although historically, this has been less evident in Turkey, Israel, and Iran, that developed domestic national security capacity. However, several Arab countries are displaying an emerging assertiveness, in which they have energetically and creatively pursued international and regional diplomatic endeavours reflecting greater manoeuvrability, confidence, and independence.
Shifting Trends
In this light, the last few decades have witnessed several significant Middle Eastern shifting trends:
- The geopolitical balance had shifted towards Turkey, Israel, and Iran, which had pursued aggressive or recalcitrant regional policies, attempting to posture themselves as salient leaders in the region. However, after their strong-handed regional policies proved ineffective, they were recently prompted to shift their strategies. Currently, most of the three attempt to preserve their achievements, redress challenges and adapt to changing political environments with more diplomatic and engaging approaches to regional players.
- There is increasing evidence of more confident and positive embracement of change in recent years, especially in the Arab Gulf. This has been evident domestically, as well as in developing cordial relations with the US, China, and Russia. One example is Riyadh hosting regional summits with Washington and Beijing, while Russia hosted the sixth strategic dialogue with the Gulf.
- Conflicts in the region have become increasingly regionalized, with a diminishing role for international players. Conflict resolution diplomacy has also shifted towards more sub-regional initiatives, particularly in North Africa, Libya, Eastern Mediterranean, Syria, Arab Gulf, Iran, and Sudan. This is a positive trend and indicates a growing tendency of sub-regional actors taking a more active role in seeking solutions to the conflicts in their respective areas. This year, Morocco hosted a Libyan reconciliation meeting, Egypt held meetings of neighbouring countries to Sudan and of Palestinian factions to facilitate their reconciliation, Saudi Arabia has hosted meetings on Sudan, concluded an agreement with Iran, and hosted an Arab League meeting bringing Syria back to the organization. The UAE has been active in quiet diplomacy on sensitive Nile Water Issues. Another evident example of this trend is the rapprochement between Turkey and numerous Arab States from North Africa to the Gulf and the signs of improved relations between the Arab Gulf States and Iran. These all further demonstrate the region’s evolving approach to addressing contentious issues within its borders. If wisely invested, this activism could more positively balance and stabilize regional geopolitics, thus driving other players towards more accommodation.
- There has been a growing emphasis on national economic development in the Middle East. This is seen in prioritized efforts to enhance infrastructural efficiency, transform and modernize national economies, create regional logistic hubs for East Africa and West Asia, as well as a healthy trend towards enhancing human skill sets, an important development with populations in most countries quite youthful. In essence, there are indications that the region is embracing the future.
Challenges Ahead
The future of the Middle East is indeed faced with significant challenges that must be addressed to achieve sustainable development and stability in the region. The proliferation of regional conflicts can still ultimately disrupt development trains. Another is to deal with the increasing economic disparities in the region, which are the largest in the world. The region has been grappling with persistently high unemployment rates, particularly among young males and females. The economic challenges were further exacerbated by the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and the situation in Ukraine. On average, unemployment rates increased to 21.4% and 42.5% for young males and females in 2022, as per the International Labour Organization, with the burden falling disproportionately on the more educated individuals who often seek job security in the public sector. It is interesting to note that the World Bank has identified youth in several countries, including Bahrain, Kuwait, Yemen, UAE, Iraq, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt, and Tunisia, as having the highest relative interest in public sector employment.
However, the demand for public sector jobs far exceeds availability, leading to growth in the economy's informal, more vulnerable sector, often closer to the poverty line. This calls for urgent actions to promote a dynamic private sector, as well as social protection policies that are currently diminishing. A robust shock-responsive system to support people with low incomes is imperative, including expanded coverage of informal workers under social protection policies, with a view to enhancing their productivity.
And not to be ignored are food security, water scarcity, and management, the effects of climate change, as well as nuclear proliferation and weaponization. The UAE hosting Cop 28 one year after Egypt hosted Cop 27 clearly indicates that the region is aware of this challenge and the need to provide responsive well-considered rational comprehensive solutions. This indicates the region's willingness to contribute to global efforts to address climate change and its consequences.
In addition to these challenges, if not even more important, the search for national identity amongst states in the region needs to further crystallize after years of soul-searching varying between nationalism, secularism, fundamentalism, sectarianism, revisionism, and modernism. By promoting more responsive social contracts that respect ethnicity and diversity while honouring national identity, the region can foster a sense of belonging and shared purpose, which is crucial for building resilient and stable societies. Through proactive and collaborative actions, the region can aspire to a more optimistic future that fosters development, peace, and prosperity for its people.
