Yevgeny Prigozhin, the chief of the Russian private military contractor group Wagner, announced that his forces had crossed the Ukrainian border into the city of Rostov-on-Don in southern Russia, threatening to destroy anyone who would obstruct their path, including Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu if necessary.
In an official speech delivered on the morning of June 24, 2023, Russian President Putin confirmed that what had happened was a stab in the back, instructing the security and military forces to neutralize the "traitors," referring to Prigozhin himself. He called on Russian security to arrest Prigozhin on charges of inciting a civil war. Wagner issued a statement in response to Putin's speech, affirming that Putin had chosen the wrong path and that Russia would soon have a new leader.
In an official speech delivered on the morning of June 24, 2023, Russian President Vladimir Putin confirmed that what had happened was a stab in the back, and instructed the security and military forces to neutralize the "traitors," referring to Prigozhin himself. He called on Russian security to arrest Prigozhin on charges of inciting a civil war. In response to Putin's speech, Wagner issued a statement affirming that Putin had chosen the wrong path and that Russia would soon have a new leader.
The defection of Wagner and the involvement of its forces in the conflict have significant implications for the Russo-Ukrainian war. The actions of Wagner and the response from the Russian government signal internal divisions and potential shifts in power dynamics within Russia. The situation remains highly volatile, and the repercussions of these events on the ongoing war are yet to unfold fully.
Wagner's Movement
The chief of Wagner has withdrawn his forces from the frontlines in Ukraine, redirecting them towards the city of Rostov-on-Don, located approximately 1000 kilometers from Moscow, as well as the city of Voronezh, which is 500 kilometers from Moscow. This can be detailed as follows:
1- Prigozhin's power grab:
Prigozhin's defection came after he released a video claiming that the Russian army had launched missile strikes on his forces' rear positions in Ukraine, resulting in the deaths of around two thousand of his personnel. These accusations were denied by the Russian Ministry of Defense, stating that they were merely "untrue" and represent "a theatrical performance.”
On the other side, Putin portrayed Prigozhin's actions as an attempt to fulfill personal ambitions, suggesting that he was seeking to seize power through a military coup against Putin himself. A statement attributed to Wagner, in response to Putin's speech, described it as disappointing and claimed that Putin had chosen the wrong path, and predicted that Russia would soon have a new leader.
Despite initially stating that the dispute was solely with the Russian Ministry of Defense, it is evident that from the very beginning, Prigozhin’s attack targeted Russian President Vladimir Putin himself. This became even more evident in Prigozhin’s skepticism towards the Kremlin's narrative regarding the war, emphasizing Western positions on the Russian war against Ukraine. Among these positions is the fact that Ukraine poses no threat to Russia. He further affirmed his readiness to die for the Russian people who need to be liberated from those who shell civilian populations, directly accusing the Kremlin of being involved in killing civilians in Ukraine and “tarnishing the image of” the Russian war against Ukraine.
2- Seizing control of Rostov-on-Don and Voronezh:
Prigozhin announced that he seized control of the headquarters of the headquarters of the Southern Military District (SMD) in the city of Rostov-on-Don, stating that his Wagner forces have occupied all military facilities throughout the city, including the airport, to ensure that the Russian Air Force attacks the Ukrainians rather than his own forces. However, he emphasized that military operations will continue "without obstacles" and that no officers have been dismissed or removed.
Later, Prigozhin appeared in a video with Deputy Defense Minister Yunus-Bek Yevkurov, and Deputy Chief of Staff Vladimir Alexeyev at the Southern Military District’s headquarters in Rostov-on-Don, where he demanded the dismissal of Shoigu and and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov. The Russian President acknowledged that the situation there was difficult, but he emphasized that military measures would be taken against them. Unconfirmed reports emerged about Wagner forces seizing control of all military sites in the city of Voronezh, located 500 kilometers from Moscow. Additionally, the chief of Wagner threatened to march on to Moscow. The development indicates that the conflict between Wagner and the Russian Ministry of Defense may be resolved militarily.
3- The absence of popular support:
It is noticeable that the Russian citizens in the city of Rostov have attacked Wagner forces, demanding their withdrawal. This reveals that the group lacks strong popular support. Furthermore, the chief of Wagner's call for the Russian people to rally around the country has failed. On the other hand, Prigozhin’s threats to march on to Moscow and topple Putin perhaps indicate that there are other internal or external parties assisting him in his coup attempt against Putin. It could also be an indication of his involvement in a risky and unpredictable adventure.
Response of the Russian Army
Putin revealed that he has given orders to the Russian army to eliminate the “traitors”, following appeals from Russian military officials to Prigozhin to retreat. This indicates a setback in the scenario of peaceful conflict resolution. This can be detailed as follows:
1- Recruitment of Wagner Group elements:
The deputy commander of Russia's Ukraine campaign, General Sergei Surovikin, addressed Wagner’s commanders and military personnel, and not just Prigozhin, urging them to obey to the orders of the Russian president, return to their bases, and resolve all issues through peaceful means under the overall leadership of the Russian army. This implies that the Russian army supports any attempts by Wagner's commanders to break away from Prigozhin.
Moreover, the Russian Ministry of Defense Defence Ministry said in a statement addressed to Wagner Group mercenary fighters on Saturday that they had been "deceived and dragged into a criminal adventure" by their chief Prigozhin. The ministry urged Wagner fighters to contact its representatives and those of law enforcement services and promised to guarantee their security. Powered
This implies a potential amnesty for the Wagner elements who entered Rostov-on-Don with Prigozhin. The Ministry of Defense called on them to surrender themselves to avoid prosecution. The call suggests that the Russian government is seeking to weaken the command of Wagner by encouraging defection of its elements and commanders, as well as increasing the cost of any support provided to the group by its elements. The Ministry of Defense further announced that some Wagner elements responded to its call by returning to their bases, but it is difficult to verify the credibility of this information and the size of troops that defected from the Wagner boss.
On the same day, General Sergei Surovikin, deputy commander of Russia's Ukraine campaign, General Sergei Surovikin, told the fighters and commanders of Wagner group to obey “the will” of Vladimir Putin and stop any move against the army.
2- Neutralizing coup plotters:
Putin, in his speech, indicated that the armed forces have received orders to neutralize the traitors who participated in the attack, referring to Wagner mercenary chief Prigozhin, as well as all those who were determined to continue their military support to him and have refused to defect from him, as demanded by the Russian Ministry of Defense.
Mayor of Moscow, Sergei Sobyanin, announced that security measures were enhanced and anti-terrorism measures were taken in Moscow. The measures are aimed at securing the capital against any movements aimed at carrying out a military coup. They also reflect the Russian government's intention to take control of the headquarters and elements of the Wagner Company in Moscow, including a head office located in Moscow. The raid by Russian security forces on the headquarters of the private military group Wagner near the Blagoveshchensky Bridge in St. Petersburg further confirms this intention. This means the Russian military is determined to bring the mercenary group’s headquarters in all Russian cities under control.
3- Intensifying attacks on Ukraine:
Ukrainian media reported that explosions were heard in the capital city of Kyiv and the provinces of Kharkiv, Poltava, Vinnytsia, Dnipro and Kremenchuk in the early hours of June 24, 2023, following Wagner’s military rebellion. This indicates the possibility of the Russian army targeting command and control centers, as well as ammunition depots of the Ukrainian army, in order to prevent it from taking advantage of chaos within the Russian forces as a result of the Wagner rebellion.
The Russian Ministry of Defense issued a statement confirming that Wagner forces were far from the frontlines and that their withdrawal did not affect the Russian defensive lines there.
Potential Ramifications
The ramifications of Prigozhin’s defection hinge on the Russian army's ability to eliminate the mercenary chief quickly. If the Russian army succeeds in eliminating all defected Wagner forces, the ramifications of the rebellion will be limited. However, if the situation remains unresolved, the ramifications will be broader and may have a direct impact on the Russian state. This can be detailed as follows:
1- Impact on the prestige of the Russian army:
The Russian army has managed to thwart the Ukrainian counter-offensive supported by NATO and has even cast doubt on the effectiveness of Western weapons sent to the Ukrainian army, especially German and American tanks. However, Wagner’s rebellion may raise doubts about the strength of the Russian army, especially if it fails to decisively resolve the conflict with a relatively small armed group.
2- Risk of a civil war:
President Putin described Wagner's actions as “internal betrayal”, comparing it to what happened during World War I when such betrayal led to a civil war that resulted in Russia's loss of the war and a significant portion of its territories.
In its comment on the developments unfolding in Russia, Ukraine emphasized that what is happening now is only the beginning, implying the possibility of wider unrest. The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense warned against disturbances occurring in various parts of Russia, indicating the West's efforts to exploit Wagner's rebellion to incite unrest inside Russia to slow down Russian military offensives in Ukraine or even ensure the success of Ukraine's counterattack, which has failed to achieve significant military victories over the past three weeks after Ukraine suffered substantial losses in troops and equipment. This situation has prompted Western countries to openly acknowledge the Ukrainian forces' inability to achieve any military victory against Russia, which could jeopardize Western support for Ukraine.
On the other hand, one of the declared objectives of Washington and allied Western countries is to attempt to overthrow Russian President Vladimir Putin or incite a civil war in Russia in order to dismantle the country, thereby ensuring that it no longer poses any risks to European countries. Undoubtedly, the setbacks suffered by the Ukrainian military have undermined these objectives. However, Wagner's rebellion will tempt the West to once again try to exacerbate internal divisions in Russia and continue supporting Ukraine for a longer period, in the hope of achieving their desired goal.
But, on the other hand, the chances for Wagner posing a severe threat to the Russian military are unlikely, as they have not received any support from units within the Russian army. Furthermore, according to Prigozhin, Wagner is 25,000 strong, while the size of the Russian forces is estimated to be over 2 million personnel.
3- Ukrainian counter-offensive:
The Russian Ministry of Defense revealed that the regime in Kyiv exploited Prigozhin’s provocative actions and launched attacks against Bakhmut, which the Russian army confirmed it had thwarted. However, the Russian Ministry of Defense stated that the Ukrainian army has once again deployed units from the 35th and 36th Marine Infantry Brigades on the frontlines of offensive operations. This indicates Ukraine's preparedness to launch new attacks in an attempt to penetrate Russian defenses in Ukraine, taking advantage of the conflict between the Russian army and Wagner. The Ukrainian army may also intensify its attacks along the frontlines with the Russian army.
Indeed, Wagner forces were not deployed on the frontline in Ukraine at the moment of their rebellion, but rather in internal camps near Luhansk and Donetsk, which facilitated their access to Rostov. This means that their rebellion did not directly impact the Russian defensive lines. However, on the other hand, their rebellion could affect the morale of the Russian army. Moreover, Wagner's control over Rostov, which is an important center for military operations management in Ukraine, may pose some challenges for the Russian army’s operations there.
4- Evident Western benefits:
Prigozhin has claimed that the Russian army has suffered losses, three or four times higher than officially announced, and that it is losing more territory to Ukraine than reported. Undoubtedly, such unfounded claims would be exploited by the West to emphasize that not only Ukraine, but also the Russian army, are being exhausted, and that it is highly important to continue military support for Ukraine.
