An US intelligence report published in July revealed that Iran shipped hundreds of new Unmanned Ariel Vehicles (UAV) to Russia, which the latter have used in its operation in the Ukraine. The UAV units are capable of launching air-to-surface missiles and carrying cyber-attacks. Recent imagery released by Ukraine military showed remains of an Iranian Shahed 136 model that was shot down near Odesa airport. The Shahed model has been previously used in different parts of the Middle East by Iran and its proxies.
It is unclear why a major global power like Russia would resort to procuring Iranian mid-range weapons. Russia is one of the most advanced producers of fighter jets and nuclear weapons carrying missiles that can travel across continents (intercontinental ballistic missile - ICBM). The key question, then, is: why would Russia procure Iranian drones?
Multiple Dimensions
Why would one of the world’s most advanced arms producer procure middle-range weapons from Iran? There are three dimensions to Russia’s drones purchase, which may be outlined as follows:
1. Economic:
Iran’s UAVs are made of glass fibre, a cheap material that costs Iran just under USD 100 per largest drone. The drones use petrol fuel, like that used in cars, and they utilise basic communication technology used in mobile phones.
As the war in Ukraine prolongs Russia looks for economical ways to manage its costs. Western sanctions have disrupted manufacturing supply chains to Russia, limiting resources availability. Russia’s ORLAN-10 drone, for instance, contains a French thermal camera, a Japanese engine, an American electric circuit, in addition to other high tech gyroscopes and other gear that are sourced from the West. These foreign tech components that make up the Russian model has become more difficult to source under Western sanctions. Putin, having until now lost more than 60 ORLAN drones in Ukraine, is looking for cheaper alternatives, and Iran’s Shahed could be the answer.
The US and Israel have invested intelligence resources to tighten the grip on Iran’s ability to secure the material necessary to manufacturing its drones. Iran, therefore, has resorted to illicit smuggling. Yet, it also started developing drones based on Chinese designs, which are chiefly similar to Western models. Despite tight sanctions, Iran has managed to develop relatively advanced homemade drones.
2. Political:
Russia’s international isolation instigated by Western sanctions has led to worsening economic circumstances. Large numbers of the Russian people are growing ever more frustrated at the cost-of-living crisis, while Putin went on to strike military trade deals with China, North Korea, and other Asian states. Putin, having been boycotted by the West, now looks to build a bloc of alliance outside of NATO.
In that context, Russia can rely on two partners: China and Iran. Yet China, careful not to worsen its relations with Washington, is reluctant to supply weapons to Moscow. Looking to fill the shortage in its drone fleet, Moscow turned to Tehran for its impressive ability to develop fairly advanced weapons despite stifling Western sanctions.
3. Military:
Iran’s drones will help Russia restock its UAVs that have been lost in Ukraine. It is estimated that Russia owns about 1500 to 2000 units, a relatively small fleet. Ukraine by contrast has used highly advanced Turkish drones, which inflicted heavy damages to Russian tanks and troops since the early weeks of the operation. And despite the Russian publicity, its drones have not fared well against Western-made defence systems, including surface-to-air batteries.
For reasons outlined above Russia has bought Iranian drones to support its operation in the Ukraine for the time being. Western sanctions have hindered Russia’s ability to manufacture new drones, and Iran seem to have the ability to make effective units for cheap. Although, officially, Iran’s foreign ministry has rejected reports of drone delivery to Russia for use in Ukraine war.
Other types of Iranian-made UAVs, that Russia uses are HESA Ababil, beside older models of Shahed drones colloquially known in media as suicide drones. The Ababil model can carry up to 600kg explosive head and could serve double tasks of reconnaissance and track-and-destroy mission. The first shipments to Russia included earlier prototype models, Shahed 129 and 191, in addition to Mohajer 6. These are the most advanced UAVs Iran has made to date, capable of multiple missions.
Russia’s introduction to Iranian-made drones will change the war in Ukraine. Some of the drones can carry high precision missiles, which would enable Russia to continue using its arsenal. This way, Russia can quickly fill the lack in its drone fleets.
One notable weakness in Ukraine’s air defence systems may give Russia a leverage in using Iranian drones: Ukraine’s systems are mostly Soviet technology and have failed to detect and intercept Iranian-made drones, which can fly at low speeds, thus going under Ukraine’s radars.
Evaluating the Deal
There are conflicting opinions about the Russia-Iran drone deal: one camp of analysts believe these drones would offer support to Russian forces; another camp remains sceptical of the effectiveness of these drones. We may summarise these views in the following ways:
1. Draining Russia:
A recent British intelligence report concluded that Russia’s air fleet has suffered big losses. More than 1000 UAV units have been shot down by Ukraine in the past six months. The report adds that Russia has been using drones to find and lock in attack sites. If Russia continues to lose drones, its ability to target Ukrainian sites would be crippled.
Other Western experts have noted that Russia’s purchasing of Iranian drones indicate the dire condition of its military. They argue that Russia, being unable to secure high tech parts for its drones, seems it cannot to keep up with its losses in Ukraine. All the while, the US is supplying Ukraine with HIMARS systems – a light multiple rocket launcher that has proved to be effective against Russian targets as far as 50km, destroying ammunition storage houses and logistic supplies. In addition, M777 howitzer supplied to Ukraine by NATO has posed a serious challenge to Russia, and many of Russia’s drones have been lost, hindering its ability to target Ukrainian forces beyond their defence lines, and allowing Ukraine to send reinforcements.
2. Iran’s pragmatism:
While Russian-Iranian partnership has flourished for a while to overcome Western sanctions it could end any day, especially if Iran reaches a new nuclear deal with the US. And historically, Russia and Iran are energy rivals. Russia, entering Asian energy market to look for new buyers for its oil, has created tension with Iran.
3. Russia’s reluctance:
Many Russian officials have questioned the use of Iranian drones. As one US official puts it, Iranian drones might be ‘deadly’ but their credibility is questionable, and Ukraine’s defences can easily intercept them.
Another American security official added that while Iran’s delivery of drones could offer a short-term solution for Russia, the shipments arrived with issues, and their performance have experienced many issues.
What concerns Russian officials, moreover, is that these drones have barely been tested. Iran has supplied some of these drone models to affiliate militias such as Houthis in Yemen and other groups in Iraq; yet the drones were never seriously tested in high tensity battle environment such as that in the Ukraine. Many experts, therefore, expect the drones to suffer serious technical issues soon.
It may be concluded that Iranian drone units may help Russia supplement its fleet for the short term, but their effectiveness would be difficult to predict. Iran has history of excarnating the actual capability of its drones. Russia may have taken a gamble by purchasing these drones and could lose Iran’s support soon, if the latter revived the nuclear deal with the US. Iran, nevertheless, walks away with a good bargain, having the opportunity to test its drones in the battlefield, allowing Tehran to develop and fix any malfunctions that might come up.
