Tunisian President Kais Saied, on June 20, received a new draft constitution written by Sadok Belaid, Coordinator of the High National Advisory Committee for New Republic. The draft was not final as some chapters were reviewed and amended before it was published in the official gazette on June 30. The draft new constitution will be put to a referendum on July 25.
Volatile domestic context
President Saied received the draft of the new constitution amid significant political and economic developments that can be outlined as follows:
1- Opposition’s failed protests:
The opposition parties, especially Ennahda Movement and the National Salvation Front, preempted the delivery of the draft of the new constitution to Saied by mobilizing their supporters and organizing rallies and protests on June 19. They wanted to pit public opinion against the president’s endeavors to produce a new constitution and put it to referendum, scheduled on July 25.
The protests in the capital Tunis showed that Ennahda Movement and the National Salvation Front were unable to mobilize as many supporters to the rallies as planned to create obstacles to political and constitutional reforms. Only a few hundreds of citizens responded to Ennahda’s call for expressing rejection of the new constitution and boycotting the upcoming referendum. To the dismay of the opposition, the rallies show a lack of popular support base and a receding status in the current political landscape.
2- Extending judges’ strike:
The coordination body of the Judges’ Association decided to extend the Tunisian judges’ national strike for a fourth week in protest against a decision by President Saied to sack 57 judges in early June, after he accused them of corruption, sexual harrassment, protecting terrorists and allegiance to political parties.
Judges from the opposition, and especially former members of the Supreme Judiciary Council, already dissolved in March and replaced by a new provisional Supreme judiciary council. The judges’ strike angered Saied who recently stated that the 57 judges were sacked as part of efforts to purge the judiciary, and noted that one of them refused to consider 6452 cases over 10 years which indicates his protection of the accused and his inability to achieve justice.
3- Considering economic reforms:
The new draft constitution came amid a stifling economic and social crisis, which prompted Prime Minister Najla Bouden to hold meetings with representatives of the International Monetary Fund to try to secure USD4 billion in loans to revive the country’s fragile economy.
Opportunities
In light of the above mentioned conditions, there are opportunities to pass the new constitution and put it to popular referendum as scheduled. Of these, the following stand out:
1- Saied clinging to his approach:
President Saied is committed to his view of the need to carry out political and constitutional reforms included in a roadmap he announced on December 13, 2021. He is adamant on carrying out the whole roadmap, including purging the state institutions. Moreover, Saied, on several occasions, emphasized the need for completing the process of “correction” and radical reform in Tunisia’s political life.
2- The opposition’s inability to mobilize massive protests:
The opposition parties organized several demonstrations against President Saied, but almost all of these rallies were scattered as each one of the parties separately organized its own supporters. The Ennahda Movement, the National Salvation Front and the Free Constitutional Party each organized their own separate protests against the President’s decisions, the referendum and the new constitution. Moreover, the Tunisian General Labor Union organized its own general protests.
Although all these rallies have one thing in common, which is rejecting President Saied’s decisions, ideological divisions and contrasting interests have rendered these parties unable to cooperate with each other against Saied. For example, Ennahda opposes Saied’s decision to dissolve the parliament and exclude the party from the national dialogue, while the General Labor Union opposes the foundations and mechanisms of the dialogue as well as the government’s rejection of its social and economic demands. The Free Constitutional Party opposes Saied because he excluded it from the national dialogue as the party seeks to maintain the legislature’s role in political life, perform well in the upcoming parliamentary elections in a bid to eventually replace Ennahda and its allies. The results of a survey conducted by the Sigma Conseil Foundation showed that the Free Constitutional Party was in the lead receiving 29.9 percent of the voting intentions.
Despite that, the Tunisian General Labor Union and the Free Constitutional Party oppose Ennahda’s demands for reinstating the dissolved parliament, and agree with Saied that corrupt elements from Ennahda should be brought to justice.
3- Popular support for Saied:
A large segment of Tunisians and emerging political parties, such as the so-called New Republic Movement which backs President Saied’s decisions including the introduction of a new constitution and a new political system while also removing the Brotherhood from political life. A poll conducted by Emrhod Consulting in early June on voting intentions shows that President Saied is in the lead receiving support from 70 percent of the surveyed Tunisians, a significant indicator that his decisions receive wide popular support.
Obstacles
On the other hand, obstacles are likely to block the success of the upcoming referendum on the new draft constitution. These include:
1- Disagreement about the constitution:
Tensions have emerged around some issues tackled by the new draft constitution. In particular, the new constitution does not state that Islam is the religion of the state. Ennahda used this issue in a bid to secure support for its campaign for boycotting the referendum on the new constitution. Its pretext is that the Islamic identity of the Tunisian state would be obliterated by the new constitution.
In his response to Ennahda, Saied emphasized that the new constitution will not state that the state’s religion is Islam but will not that Tunisia is “part of the Islamic ummah. He noted that a verse from the Holy Quran states that:”You were the best nation brought out to people” and not “the best state”, meaning that Islam is the religion of the Tunisian state and there is no need for stating that explicitly in the new constitution.
Moreover, one major disagreement between Saied and his opponents revolves around political reforms and replacing the existing parliamentary system with a presidential system. The cause of this disagreement is that Saied adopted the results of an online survey in which 86.4 percent of those polled said they backed the change into a presidential system. Political parties and the General Labor Union reject Saied’s reliance on the online poll because, according to them, it represents an unreal dialogue involving only 50,0000 citizens. The change will be similar to the 1959 constitution as it gives the president more powers, compared to the 2014 constitution which established the parliamentary system.
2- Partisan boycott:
Some political parties including Ennahda and the Free Constitutional Party announced that they will boycott the referendum on the new constitution because they reject the change into a presidential political system poised to give Saied far more power and tighten his grip on the executive branch of the government. According to them, this means the new parliament will not be powerful enough to choose one of its members as prime minister and accordingly the legislature will only play a legislative role.
3- General Labor Union’s hazy position:
Despite its escalatory rhetoric against President Saied’s decisions, and its organization of a general strike across Tunisia on June 16, the Union has not yet decided whether or not it will participate in the referendum on the new constitution. This was evidenced by statements by its secretary-general Noureddine Taboubi in which he noted that the Union will declare its decision at a meeting of its national administrative board, held on June 26 and 27.
According to current assessments, the General Labor Union is likely to boycott the referendum on the new constitution, especially after it announced that negotiations with the current government had failed, that its declared demands have not been fulfilled and that it refused to participate in the national dialogue. The union’s withdrawal will of course impact the turnout at the upcoming referendum because it represents a significant social force with a significant political weight in Tunisia’s political life.
In conclusion, and based on the current situation, the new constitution is likely to be completed and put to referendum as scheduled on July 25 as part of the constitutional and political reforms. This will make President Saied more resolved on carrying out reforms, while causing the opposition to be further fragmented and divided.
