Fast-paced shifts in the terrorism landscape in recent years, especially regarding al-Qaeda’s significant comeback to the global stage, represents a challenge that cannot be ignored. The challenge receives special attention from the international community, especially because it indicates that threats posed by terrorist organizations will not decline despite the defeats suffered by ISIS in Syria and Iraq.
Within this context, a report prepared by the UN Security Council’s Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team on February 7, 2018, revealed that threats posed by al-Qaeda affiliates, in Yemen, Somalia, West Africa and South Asia, have reached unprecedented levels due to their inability to conduct terrorist attacks in certain areas. These even surpass threats posed by ISIS, which continues to try to absorb the significant consequences imposed by military operations in both Syria and Iraq.
Various Considerations
These increasing international warnings against al-Qaeda’s expanding activity can be explained in light of the following considerations:
1- Increasing Activity of al-Qaeda affiliates. The UN Security Council’s report noted that al-Qaeda’s major branches have become its main source of power, due in particular to their large number and ability to continue to spread while also sustain a considerable human base. These branches achieved this despite coming under pressure in the past period, especially while ISIS was increasing its activity thus becoming able to recruit a number of al-Qaeda commanders and elements.
Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) is a major al-Qaeda branch that transformed into a cross-border group after succeeding in spreading its influence in new areas and carrying out high-profile terror attacks, such as the November 2017 attack on UN troops that killed 5 soldiers and injured 3 others.
Additionally, Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahideen in Somalia, al-Qaeda’s main branch in East Africa, sought to impose its control over large swaths of Somali territory. Most recently, in a September 11, 2017 attack, the group attempted to capture a city on the border with Kenya, using explosives-packed vehicle to ram a military base. Al-Shabaab appears to have intentionally carried out the attack on 9/11, especially after it became a target of United States’ aerial attacks the deadliest of which was launched on November 21, 2017 killing more than 1000 militants.
2- Strengthening the Mechanism of Alliances. It can possibly be said that a major reason why al-Qaeda was able to survive and maintain presence as a terrorist organization over the past decade is that it was able to establish alliances with tribes and other organizations. This helped al-Qaeda consolidate its influence in new area. For instance, AQIM entered into an alliance that produced a new group called Nusrat al-Islam wal Muslimeen in March 2017. This became al-Qaeda’s largest alliances in West Africa after the Macina Liberation Movement and the Ansar Dine group joined the al-Qaeda main branch.
Moreover, a number of al-Qaeda branches showed relative flexibility that enabled them to establish wider alliances. A good instance is Jabhat al-Nusra, which rebranded itself as Jabhat Fatah al-Sham and cut its ties with al-Qaeda, only formally, in July 2017, and entered into a larger alliance named Hayat Tahrir Al Sham, announced in January 2017, with the signatories being groups such as Nour al-Din al-Zinki, Liwa al-Haq, the Ansar al-Din Front and Jaish al-Sunna.
What stands out in this context is that al-Qaeda mother organization started in January 2018 to recruit its terrorist operatives inside Syria to establish a new branch that would be parallel to Jabhat Fatah al-Sham. The members are those who rejected Jabhat al-Nusra’s disengagement from al-Qaeda even if the move was made to avoid military strikes by international powers involved in the war on terrorism in Syria and Iraq.
There views that the development indicates disagreement between the mother organization and Jabhat al-Nusra due to developments during the conflict in Syria over the past three years in which the latter was a party.
3- Attempts to Expand. Al-Qaeda was targeted by several strikes in the past period, especially in North Africa. Most recently, on January 20, 2018, Tunisian security services succeeded in eliminating Bachir Ben Naji, the new leader of the Okba Ibn Nafaa Brigade, a branch of AQIM, and Bilel Kobi, the top aide to Abu Musab Abdul Wadud. However, the operation has not deterred al-Qaeda from continuing to make attempts to expand influence and reach new areas exploiting a decline in ISIS activity to return as a top terror organization in the region.
4- Low-profile Organizations. Al-Qaeda affiliates, such as Okba bin Nafaa and Kata'ib al-Fatah al-Mubin in Tunisia, are groups that the mother organization tries to use to recruit new elements and establish a hotbed using extremist slogans. There were warnings that these organizations may be planning to carry out terrorist organizations in the coming period to send out the message that they are capable of expanding their activity and support the mother organization’s attempt to consolidate its influence once again.
Overall, current warnings and increasing indications reveal that al-Qaeda is seeking to exploit implications imposed by the war on terrorism to regain its influence. The bid can usher in a new stage in this war, which does not appear to be stopping at defeating ISIS in Syria and Syria.
