The Kurdistan Democratic Union party (PYD) led by Saleh Musallam continues its efforts and takes new executive actions with the aim of turning the federal system, announced on 17 March 2016 in areas under its control in northern Syria (Rojava regions) into reality. The previous step taken by PYD was preparing a draft Federal Constitution composed of 85 articles stipulating that the constitution is a social contract for the democratic federal Rojava, and considering the city of Qamishli as the capital and center of the federation.

Practical Steps

The constituent Assembly for the Union of northern Syria, on July 29, set dates for conducting the first local and legislative elections in northern Syria, after ratifying legal administrative divisions and elections, including the following: 

1- September 22, is the date for elections of municipal institutions or the so-called communes, the first level of local administration in northern Syria, the smallest electoral unit across alleys and neighborhoods. 

2- November 23 is the date for local and provincial governing bodies elections, the second level of local administration in northern Syria.   

3- January 19, 2018 is the date for the Peoples’ Congress elections in northern Syria, and the Democratic Peoples’ Conference elections, a pan-Federal Parliament for northern Syria. It should be noted here that the Constituent Assembly of the federal system consists of 31 persons and has two co-chairs, Hadyah Yusuf, a Kurdish figure, and Mansour Alsalloomi, an Arab figure.

Participatory federation

The concept of governance adopted by the Kurds in northern Syria is based on participatory federalism, which includes the following: 

1- Broad decentralized administration, where different provinces in northern Syria elect local legislative and executive councils, preceded by the election of the councils of alleys and neighborhoods. 

2- Bottom-up democracy, so that each county and region has its special council, legislative and executive arms, where the Democratic Peoples Conference will be elected, which constitutes the general umbrella and governing body of the different regions. According to the new divisions, the north will be divided into three regions, namely the island region, consisting of of Hassakeh and Qamishli, Euphrates region consisting of Kobani and Gire Spi, Afrin region consisting of Afrin and Alshahbaa.

Main motives

There are several accumulative factors, internal and external, that led northern Syrian Kurds to set dates for the first local and legislative elections in their areas, as follows: 

1- Self-motives 

A- Strong military support for the Kurds, as represented in the Kurdish People Protection units, which is considered the military wing of the Democratic Union party, around 500,000 fighters, as well as the Syrian Democratic Forces, military factions from both Arabs and Kurds, and Kurdish Asayish forces (Kurdish police). These forces were instrumental in establishing a self-administration system in the island in Hassakeh and Kobani in the countryside of northern Aleppo, Afrin in the countryside of north-western Aleppo, and Tal Abyad in Raqqa. They have also played a key role in fighting “ISIS” in northern Syria, especially the ongoing battle for Raqqa.

B- Availability of economic resources, represented in the Kurds’ control of many oil fields, gas plants and cotton gins in northern Syria, in addition to tax revenues and customs duties that are imposed in the north, as well as the revenues from the Kurdish service institutions.  

C- Establishing institutions and administrative bodies similar to those in states, particularly in main counties (Kobani, the island, Afrin and Tal Abyad). Most prominent institutions are: education department, People’s Protection units (Ministry of Defence) and Asayish forces (Ministry of Interior). 

D- Establishing cultural foundations and an educational system to support the Kurdish identity in northern Syria, mainly through the education department of Kurdish to change most of the curricula to include the Kurdish language at the schools in the autonomous administration.

E- Kurds’ success in implementing the policies of demographic change, ethnic cleansing and displacement of Arab and Turkmen population in northern Syria, which led to changing the demographics of this region. International organizations confirm this change, particularly Amnesty International reports.

2- External motives 

A- A desire to invest in Iraq Kurdistan’s determination on separation from the Central Government, in the light of President Massoud Barzani’s repeated announcements that he is determined to conduct the referendum on independence on 25 September. Hence, Syrian Kurds seek to exploit the international momentum of the expected referendum.  

B- Exploit the international support for the Kurds, mainly from the American side, in light of Washington’s realization that Kurdish forces are the most eligible party to achieve success on the ground if supported by air cover. In this context, the international coalition led by the U.S. continues to focus on helping the Syrian Democratic Forces to restore the areas controlled by “ISIS”, as demonstrated by the ongoing battle for Raqqa. The Turkish Yeni Safak newspaper confirmed that the Constituent Assembly meeting, which approved the legal administrative divisions and elections, was held in the U.S. Rumailan military base in Hassakeh.

Significance of the Move 

The move by Syrian Kurds, to declare the schedule of local and legislative elections in northern Syria, has several significances, most notably the following: 

1- Setting dates for the local and legislative elections reflects the seriousness of Syria’s Kurds to consolidate their previous declaration regarding the federation, and demonstrates their confidence in establishing a Kurdish region in Syria, and laying the ground for imposing the federal system as a fait accompli on other parties, and making it a general framework that will shape the Syrian State in the future. 

2- By these moves, Syria’s Kurds aim to introduce themselves as a key party in any future equation related to Syria, and send a message to the rest of the parties to the conflict and regional and international powers that it was wrong to insist on excluding them from participating in the political solution and related conferences.

3- The new Kurdish arrangements came ahead of the results of the new Turkish approach towards the Syrian crisis, which became associated with the Kurdish issue, not its old strategy that aimed to topple the Syrian regime. Currently, the priority of the Turkish approach is how to outflank the growing Kurdish threat and protect Turkey from the rising Kurds, as a proactive attempt to prevent the establishment of a Kurdish entity in Turkey in the future. 

Hindering Issues

However, the Kurdish moves to establish a federation face numerous obstacles, notably as follows:

1- Objections by Syrian parties and neighboring countries, especially Turkey and Iran, which seek to block the Kurdish attempts toward secession, considering this move will fuel separatist ambitions of the Kurdish minorities in the two countries.   

2- Some Kurds in Syria oppose the moves taken by the Kurdistan Democratic Union towards federalism, particularly the Kurdish National Council, which is perceived as associated to Turkey, and has its own forces, the “Rojava Peshmerga”. 

3- Refusal by some quarters in the Arab component in northern Syria, as demonstrated in the announcement of Raqqa governorate council, on July 30, that it rejects the annexation of Tal Abyad to Kurdish autonomy zones, especially that the Kurds do not exceed 15% in Raqqa. Moreover, Raqqa council stressed that it would seek the support of the international coalition and the United Nations, pointing out that in the event of failed political endeavors, they will have to take up arms and defend their towns.

Mounting Momentum

The moves taken by Syria’s Kurds demonstrates their seriousness, given the existence of strong economic, military and cultural structure in northern Syria, which may contribute to the success of their moves to impose federalism as a new form of state, anticipating the outcome of political negotiations between al-Assad regime and the opposition, which is supposed to determine the shape of the new state. Obviously, the recent Iraq Kurdish moves towards independence from the Iraqi government gave a boost to Syria’s Kurds to discuss separation at the same time of Iraq Kurdistan referendum, and attempt to promote it regionally and internationally. 

Turkey is the most affected by this move, given the direct geographic contact of Syria’s Kurds with the Turkish border, which will further exacerbate violence between the Turkish government and Kurds, and by extension increase instability inside Turkey. Ankara is expected to ramp up its efforts during the coming period to undermine the Kurdish quest for establishing a federal system, because it considers this a red line. This may develop to push Turkey toward military intervention in Syria to block this move.

Undoubtedly, the strong move by Syria’s Kurds towards federalism will have direct impact on Kurds in the region, and will give mounting momentum for the Kurdish project in Turkey, Iraq and Iran, posing a clear threat to the unity and stability of those countries.