Lt. Colonel Muhannad al-Talla, Commander of the so-called Revolutionary Commando Army, a faction of the armed Syrian opposition, recently revealed that talks are underway with representatives of the US-led Global Coalition to Counter ISIS. The negotiations are concerning the establishment of a new “National Army,” with the Revolutionary Commando Army being the core component of the new forces. The National Army will be stationed in the al-Shaddadi military base built by the US in south of the Hasaka governorate in eastern Syria. Its primary mission is to fight against ISIS all the way to areas close the terror group’s stronghold in Deir ez-Zor.
The new National Army is likely to replace the so-called predominantly Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) based in al-Shaddadi. This would expand the goals of this army, especially regarding Washington’s efforts to restructure its relations with various involved parties and its view of the nature of roles being played by its local partners in the Coalition’s areas of influence. The effort coincides with an expansion of understanding reached with Russia about the “safe zones” as part of what can be labelled as “reconstruction of balances” in these areas.
Multiple Implications
The formation of the new National Army has several implications that can be summarized as follows:
1- Significance of Timing. The Revolutionary Commando Army consists of officers and soldiers, who defected from the Bashar Assad regime’s Syrian Arab Army and continues to operate as an armed faction against the regime. However, several reports from the West have frequently indicated that it is affiliated with the US Central Intelligence Agency and that its troops received training at the al-Tanf military base built and operated by the US-led Coalition’s command. The faction, composed mainly of fighters belonging to Arab tribes from the same area, has gained experience in fighting ISIS in the Syrian desert.
2- Nature of the role. The role of the new formation is no longer confined to fighting the Assad regime forces. Their role currently expanded to also include fighting ISIS. This can be evidenced in the fact that the United States’ decision to withdraw heavy equipment from the Free Syrian Army (FSA) operating in southern Syria coincided with the announcement of the formation of the new National Army. According to several views, this means that the US is no longer interested in supporting the FSA’s fight against Assad regime. Overall, these developments can be linked to the joint US-Russian understandings about safe zones, which indicates that the new tactics are prioritized over any other tactics.
3- Agreement with Turkey. Movements regarding the formation of the new National Army coincide with a significantly increasing presence of the Syrian opposition, and the National Coalition for Syrian Revolution and Opposition Forces in particular, in Turkey, which backed efforts to strengthen the role of Arab Syrians in areas that the Kurds plan to take. This means the development can be consistent with Ankara’s interests because it would contribute towards backing an acceptable rival of Kurdish militias, with which strong relations can be built.
4- Learning lessons from the battle for Mosul. A specific lesson that can learnt was concerning the violations committed by Iranian-backed militias in areas liberated from ISIS, after their alleged participation in armed confrontations against the group in Mosul. Of all violators, the so-called Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), better known as the Hashd al-Shaabi, stands out.
5- Significance of location. As per the plan proposed for the new National Army, two locations are being considered to be its main base. The first is the US-built military base, which was built for the SDF in al-Shaddadi town, and from which the mainly-Kurdish militia would be expelled. The second location is Deir ez-Zor, a strategic area constituting what is called “Syria’s food and oil basket.” Taking control of Deir ez-Zor will support whatever efforts are made to gain areas of influence in the Syrian territory. Moreover, Deir ez-Zor is of prominent significance for Iran, as it represents a keystone of its “Shiite arc” land route stretching from Tehran, through Iraq and Syria, to southern Lebanon and the Eastern Mediterranean.
Various Implications
Based on the above argument, it can be concluded that sole goal set for the new National Army is to fight ISIS - a goal that the Revolutionary Commando Army is promoting currently - is only an interim slogan revolving around the tasks and role of the new military formation. The most important of which is rebuilding of balances of power that would impose multiple repercussions that can be summarized as follows:
1- Strengthening Influence. Through providing support to solely the Kurdish SDF militia during the ongoing battle for Raqqa means that the US is prioritizing the war against ISIS, and has not yet expanded its priorities to include the re-engineering of areas of influence stretching from Hasaka in the north to Raqqa and Deir ez-Zor in the south. Significantly, reliance on another party that represents Arab Syrians can help achieve that future goal.
2- Backing Rivalry. Previous experiences revealed that coordination between the SDF and rival forces is difficult due, generally, to suspicions and fears shrouding future plans, and in particular to the Kurds’ keenness on signaling that they will be working towards the Iraqi model in Syrian areas under their control.
3- Consolidating a balance of powers to counter the Russian presence in particular. That is, the US and Russia share areas of influence in eastern Syria and each seeks to expand its own influence in many areas. This means that the American efforts aim to keep pace with the Russian agenda for Syria, while also trying to build a similar base of influence for itself.
Potential Challenges
Although the US is the key party involved in formulating such arrangements in Syria, that the announcement of the new military entity was not made by Washington, and instead came from the Revolutionary Commando Army, is highly significant. This can indicate that no clear decision has been made yet on this move, and that an explanation can only be found within the context of potential challenges facing it.
In other words, the mechanisms of coordination between the US and other involved parties, such as the SDF, are not clear yet. Moreover, a deployment map of these parties in Deir ez-Zor in particular - where ISIS elements as well as Assad regime’s forces, continue to have presence- has not taken a clear shape/ fully developed.
In addition, potential repercussions of a re-deployment map that would associate the new move of forming the new National Army can be no easy ones, especially in areas from which the Revolutionary Commando Army troops will be withdrawn. The reason is that such withdrawal will make the rear lines of the ongoing battle vulnerable to attempts by other forces such as the Assad regime army, to quickly fill the vacuum.
The move would also put pressure on Arab Syrian troops, who account for an estimated third of the SDF, especially because their future choices are not clear yet. That is, whether they decide to stay with the predominantly Kurdish SDF or opt for joining the new military force, based on ethnic foundations, the Arab troops’ decision will undoubtedly impact the balance of powers with the Kurds.
That said, it can possibly be concluded that the new move might contribute towards re-arranging patterns of interaction between key powers and parties involved in the conflict in Syria, which appears to be heading to strategic shifts that would affect whatever potential trajectories it takes in the coming period.
