Contrary to the pre-election opinion polls, which predicted a close race and a narrow victory, Donald Trump achieved a more significant win than expected over his Democratic opponent, Kamala Harris, in the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Not only did Trump secure the electoral college vote, but he also won the popular vote by a wider margin than in the 2016 election, when he won the presidency despite trailing behind Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton in the popular vote. With his return to the White House, Trump becomes the first U.S. president since Grover Cleveland in the 19th century to win two non-consecutive terms. Additionally, Trump, as the oldest person to assume the presidency, enters the White House amid criminal indictments, ongoing legal battles, and lingering criticism over the Capitol riot in response to the 2020 election results. The Republican Party's success extended beyond the presidential race, as they also secured a majority in the Senate and made significant gains in the House of Representatives, positioning them for majority control.
For years to come, scholars of political systems and international relations will likely analyze the 2024 U.S. election results in light of the shifts in America's political, social, and party landscape. This article aims to provide an analysis of the election outcome, the reasons behind Trump's and the Republicans' victory, and the implications thereof.
Shift in Voting Patterns
An initial review of the 2024 U.S. presidential election results reveals notable shifts in voter preferences, as follows:
1. Trump’s expanding voter base across most states:
According to the Financial Times, Trump increased his share of the vote in almost every U.S. state compared to the 2020 election. The only exceptions were Utah and Washington. In addition to winning traditional Republican strongholds, Trump also carried all seven swing states that served as pivotal battlegrounds: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Some of these states, which have historically leaned Democratic, are referred to as the "Blue Wall." Trump also narrowed the margin in Democratic strongholds such as New York, Connecticut, and New Jersey, and gained support in urban and metropolitan areas, which have traditionally favored the Democratic Party, as rural areas shifted further to the right.
2. Shifts in the voting behavior of Latinos, African Americans, males, and the youth:
African American and Latino voters have traditionally formed a crucial part of the Democratic base. However, the results of this election point to a significant change in the landscape of identity politics and racial determinism that the Democrats have long relied upon. Notably, Trump made substantial gains among Latino and African American voters, particularly among men. In contrast to the 2020 election, where Biden enjoyed a 23-point lead among Latino voters, Trump managed to secure their support for the first time. This development has led some analysts to suggest that Trump successfully built a multi-ethnic working-class coalition, extending beyond the white working class that typically forms the Republican base.
The changes in voting behavior were not limited to race and ethnicity but also extended to age groups, particularly young men. For the past two decades, voters under 30 have overwhelmingly supported Democratic candidates. However, Trump increased his support among young voters from 35% in 2020 to 42% in this election. This increase was particularly evident among white youth and non-college-educated individuals.
3. Gender-based divides:
Kamala Harris aimed to appeal to female voters by prioritizing abortion rights and reproductive issues. However, the increase in women's turnout from the previous election was only marginal, and Harris did not surpass Biden's share of female votes. In contrast, Trump managed to gain more support among male voters from various demographics. Polls revealed that a third of men who supported Trump believed that women had made gains at the expense of men, with this sentiment being particularly strong among younger men.
Reasons for Trump’s Victory
In order to fully comprehend Trump's victory in the recent election, it is essential to also examine Harris's and the Democrats' loss. This preliminary analysis is based on three levels: issues, electoral tactics, and structural changes within the American system.
1. Key Issues:
Trump successfully capitalized on widespread dissatisfaction with the Biden administration's handling of several issues, with a particular focus on inflation and immigration. On the other hand, Harris faced difficulties in distancing herself from Biden's legacy or presenting alternative policies. The key issues include:
a- Economy and inflation: The economy continues to play a crucial role in shaping American voting behavior, regardless of political party. While Democrats highlighted improved economic indicators like GDP growth and employment rates, a significant portion of voters, as indicated by some polls, perceived the U.S. economy as struggling due to high inflation rates. These inflation rates have eroded household income and purchasing power. Recognizing this dissatisfaction, Trump's campaign criticized Biden's economic management and proposed financial incentives. These incentives included exempting tips, overtime pay, and senior citizens' social security from income tax.
b- Immigration: Immigration is a crucial issue for a segment of the American electorate. Trump linked increased migration at the U.S. southern border to economic decline, rising crime, and lifestyle changes. He presented himself as capable of addressing immigration and bolstering security, contrasting with the Biden administration's record of increasing migration inflows.
c- The future of democracy: Harris's campaign portrayed Trump's potential return to the White House as a threat to democratic institutions. They referenced the "Project 2025" initiative from the conservative Heritage Foundation, which aims to reshape the federal government. Trump claimed to have no knowledge of the project, but Harris described him as a "fascist" who jeopardized the rule of law. However, this framing had limited impact on swing voters, as Republicans countered that the Democratic Party itself posed a threat to democracy.
d- Abortion and reproductive rights: Harris focused her campaign on abortion rights, hoping to rally female voters. However, as previously noted, this approach did not significantly increase her share of the female vote compared to the 2020 election. The results of this election underscored that issues like the economy had a greater influence on voter turnout than reproductive rights. Ultimately, Trump's emphasis on the economy and immigration resonated more with many Americans than Harris's warnings about the risks of a Trump presidency.
2. Electoral tactics:
Trump's campaign was successful in reaching out to traditionally Democratic constituencies, such as Latino and African American voters, young people, and union members. He employed a combination of traditional media, like talk shows, and newer platforms, such as podcasts, to connect with voters.
In contrast, Harris's campaign faced several challenges. Firstly, Biden's delayed announcement of his withdrawal from the race shortened Harris's campaign period. Additionally, the declining popularity of the Biden administration further compounded these issues.
Harris's tactical decisions often worsened her challenges in the following ways:
a- Failure to distance herself from Biden's administration as vice president: In early October, when asked how she would differ from Biden, Harris responded that she could think of nothing and had been involved in most key decisions.
b- Lack of a clear vision for America's future or alternative policies distinct from Biden's: Harris's campaign primarily focused on opposition to Trump, without offering a clear stance on several issues. This led some observers to label her as the "no comment candidate."
c- Alienation of the Democratic base, including young voters, Arabs, Muslims, and others: Harris's abandonment of progressive policies and her outreach to centrist and anti-Trump Republicans contributed to this alienation. She also did little to address specific youth concerns, such as economic issues and the rising cost of living.
d- Misstep in choosing Tim Walz as a vice-presidential running mate: Some believe that this decision failed to attract additional voters.
Polls revealed increasing dissatisfaction with the status quo, with many Americans believing the country is on the wrong track. To add, the Democratic Party faces a deeper crisis than Harris's or Biden's campaign issues. It has lost support among white working-class voters and is gradually losing its base among Latinos, African Americans, young people, and urban voters. This identity crisis requires a clear vision for the party's future, aligning with a broader trend where left-wing parties globally struggle against the rise of populist right-wing movements.
Domestic and International Implications
The victory of Donald Trump in the U.S. presidential election is expected to have significant implications for both domestic and foreign policies. With a Republican-controlled Congress, Trump will have more leeway to approve appointments and push through decisions. However, his election also raises concerns about the future of U.S. foreign policy.
Trump has expressed skepticism towards NATO and has shown a preference for trade protectionism. His positions on China and the Russia-Ukraine war are complex and not entirely clear. This uncertainty extends to his stance on the Israeli conflict with Gaza and Lebanon, as well as the broader tensions in the Middle East.
During his campaign, Trump pledged to end violence and restore peace to the region, although he did not provide specific details. He also stated that Israel should be allowed to "complete the mission" in Gaza, which has led to various interpretations and raised many questions.
