In the year 2024, a significant number of countries are poised to hold elections, with notable presidential contests scheduled in the United States, Russia, and Egypt, alongside parliamentary elections in India, Indonesia, and South Africa. The outcomes of these elections will determine the leadership of these nations in the foreseeable future, thereby exerting substantial influence on their domestic and foreign policies. These countries are all pivotal players in both the regional and global states. Their policies will play a key role in defining and shaping global and regional orders.
Without exception, the outcomes of these elections will carry significant implications for the future governance of international affairs. Specifically, the elections in the United States and Russia in the global arena and Egypt, India, Indonesia, and South Africa in the Global South. In this article, however, we will delve into the cases of Russia and the United States, recognizing their paramount influence in and substantial direct contribution to reshaping the international system. The heightened and confrontational public exchanges between these two nations, coupled with renewed warnings of a potential return to a Cold War dynamic, have raised concerns about the prospect of a third world war, either between the United States and Russia or between the United States and China.
Indееd, it is noteworthy that both American and Russian societies are undergoing a profound process of redefining their political identities in the 21st century. This transformation is marked by extensive introspection and rе-еvaluation across various facets of their respective political, socioeconomic, and security landscapes.
USA: "Towards Centrist Isolationism"
In the United States, a notable shift is occurring in the political landscape. There has been a substantial increase in the percentage of Hispanic voters who identify with right-wing political leanings and support figures such as Donald Trump as well as Florida Governor Ron DeSantis D'Santos of the Republican Party, and others who lean to extremes. Concurrently, there is a growing assertiveness among left-leaning political constituents who advocate more progressive policies, including greater social support for economically disadvantaged populations and a more open stance toward immigrants. This progressive constituency largely aligns with the Democratic Party.
In this highly polarized political climate, both are grappling with concerns about how they are perceived by the broader electorate. The Republican Party is wary of being seen as exclusively representing the political right, while the Democratic Party is cautious about being labeled as too left-leaning. The outcomes of elections in the US hinge on the undecided and centrist voters. Making it imperative for both parties to appeal to this crucial demographic. Consequently, while maintaining their core constituencies, both parties strive to convey a message of centrism. Republicans position themselves to the right of the center, emphasizing their commitment to limiting the role of the government's role in various aspects of society. On the other side, Democrats position themselves to the left of the center, advocating for a stronger and more proactive government role in providing essential social services, including healthcare, minimum wages policies, and support for the unemployed.
Another critical issue on the minds of American society pertains to the role of the United States on the global stage. There is a prevailing desire to uphold American and Western global hegemony, with some advocating for other nations to adopt the American system and its values, both internationally and domestically. This particular group is especially critical of Russian President Vladimir Putin's policies and is deeply concerned about the growing economic influence of China, viewing it as a potential threat.
There exists, however, a significant divergence in the willingness of American society to shoulder the burdens associated with its global security and political roles. A pragmatic segment of American society favors a more transactional approach to international affairs. They prioritize national interests and relationships based on mutual benefit with fewer exceptions. They position the US as a major economic power capable of deterring or responding to military challenges without taking on extensive responsibilities for others or trying to impose its own system on foreign nations. The recurring shift in American presidential elections, with the electorate selecting significantly different and, at times, contradictory figures over the past three decades, reflects the discord within society.
Regardless of the specifics, it is evident that America today is grappling with significant challenges and undergoing a period of introspection. Notably, the leading Republican figure today is Donald Trump, who is characterized as anti-establishment and has faced two impeachment proceedings, with the possibility of multiple indictments by the time of the election. Similarly, the Democratic Party has presented Joe Biden as its presidential candidate, a choice that runs counter to the American tradition of often favoring younger and more modernist candidates.
Russia: "Soul Searching"
Since Mikhail Gorbachev's presidency and his call for Perestroika, which brought about a seismic shift in the centralized communist system, Russian society has been on a trajectory toward materialism, individualism, and a greater degree of personal autonomy. This transition initially gave rise to a small but immensely wealthy economic oligarch elite, marking the early stages of post-Soviet economic reform.
Subsequently, there was a phase of recalibration, during which efforts were made to restore economic and political discipline while maintaining a degree of openness to the West and bringing back centralization to the government and the party.
Indeed, the evolution of Russia's relationship with the international community, particularly with the United States, has been marked by various phases and significant developments. These shifts have seen a series of challenges and changes, from the overthrow of Mikhail Gorbachev to the emergence of Vladimir Putin as a central figure in Russian politics.
During the early post-Soviet years, there were moments of understanding and even amicable relations between Russia and the United States, particularly during the presidencies of George W. Bush Jr. and, later, Donald Trump. However, this period of relative cooperation was followed by a time of strained relations during the Obama presidency.
Currently, Russia's relations with the United States have reached an all-time low due to a series of actions, including the annexation of Crimea, the conflict in Georgia, and the invasion of Ukraine. These movеs can be seen as efforts by Russia to counter what it perceives as attempts at unilateral hegemony by the United States and the West. This sentiment was underscored by President Putin during the recent Russia-Africa summit when he declared that "the unipolar world is over," reflecting Russia's stance on the evolving global power dynamic.
While Russia's political landscape differs from the American system, the chapters of the Russian invasion of Ukraine have been marked by numerous contradictions and shifting currents.
Amidst the backdrop of these sweeping changes, the Russian national right has experienced a resurgence on a broader scale, and various currents within the political system have gained momentum. While Russia's political landscape differs from the American system, the chapters of the Russian invasion of Ukraine have been marked by numerous contradictions and shifting currents.
One notable aspect of these dynamics has been public disagreements within Russia, with figures like Yevgeny Prigozhin's private military company, Wagner, openly criticizing the country's highest-ranking military leaders. This internal strife was followed by a seemingly theatrical march toward Moscow and the removal of certain Russian military leaders. Ultimately, negotiations between Putin and Prigozhin were able to secure understandings that protect the company's forces from being held to account.
Indeed, these indicators suggest that Russian society is also undergoing a period of soul searching, introspection, and reflection, albeit with its unique set of circumstances different from those of American society. According to my encounters with Russian acquaintances, the invasion of Ukraine generated surprise and reservations among some Russians, who were concerned about the potential consequences of militarism. However, Western attempts to isolate or weaken Russia appeared to have a unifying effect, rallying many Russians around their president, Putin. Simultaneously, the Ukrainian conflict has provided important lessons regarding the limitations and realities of Russia's military capabilities.
Potential Implications
Voters in both the United States and Russia will play a pivotal role in determining the future leadership of their respective countries, which in turn will significantly impact their roles on the international stage. While it is premature to predict the outcomes of these elections, recent events offer several noteworthy insights:
- Political Turmoil and Fragmentation:
The choices facing American voters between candidates representing either the past or those rejecting the political system, as well as the Russian electorate's decision regarding a president who used military force to counter perceived NATO threats, highlight signs of political turmoil and societal fragmentation in both nations.
- Shifts in Global Power Dynamics:
The United States will continue to maintain its position as the world's most powerful nation for the foreseeable future, while Russia remains a strong and influential player. However, it is becoming increasingly clear that neither country can unilaterally impose its desires on the global stage. Russia, in particular, faces limitations that challenge its description as a superpower.
- Emergence of Political Pluralism:
The world is moving toward a state of political pluralism, where major nations must actively seek the support and cooperation of medium and small countries to advance their agendas. This shift may not necessarily entail full cooperation and integration, but it underscores the importance of major powers engaging in attracting support for their positions and policies from allied and partner small and medium powers.
- Extended Period of Change:
Both the United States and Russia are undergoing phases of global change and national formation, which will likely extend into the future. This period presents opportunities for medium-sized and entrepreneurial countries to reshape the international system towards greater multilateralism and pluralism.
- Importance of Upcoming Elections:
The outcomes of upcoming elections in countries like Egypt, India, Indonesia, and South Africa will be of great significance. These nations' visions for the future and their capacity to collaborate with others in the Global South will play a crucial role in establishing a robust and effective voice for this region on the global stage.
