After a failed coup attempt by members of Fethullah Gulen Terrorist Organization (FETÖ) and a section of the army on July 15, 2016, most political parties in Turkey took a common stance. Despite that, some members of the opposition claimed that the Justice and Development Party (AKP) took advantage of this coup attempt to consolidate its power, yet most of the opposition parties declared that they are against any coup attempts. The opposition and the ruling parties have demonstrated a form national unity by exhibiting such a common attitude.

Judicial proceedings have been issued against 168,801 people after July 15.615 people are currently in custody, while 8069 warrants have been issued against people. In addition, there are 50,504 detainees. Despite that 48,371 people have been released under the judicial control, 8,551 people were rearrested and only 433 people were released without judicial control.[1] The State of Emergency has been declared in Turkey since July 20, 2016 and has been extended four times, every three months.[2]

Restructuring the Political Scene

Another significant development that shaped the current Turkish political scene was the Constitutional Referendum for the transition from the parliamentary to the presidential system.

Among the four important parties represented by the Turkish parliament, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) and the AKP allied together promoting the “Yes” campaign. On the other side, the People's Democratic Party (HDP) and the Republican People's Party (CHP) took the opposing view.

Concurrently, there was fragmentation within the MHP. On one hand, Devlet Bahçeli, the leader of the party, supported the amendment of the Constitution. On the other hand, the former parliamentary deputy and Member of Parliament Meral Akşener participated in the “No” campaign against this amendment of the Constitution leading the group of opposition within the MHP.

While in the referendum held on April 16, the coalition of the AKP and the MHP was expected to secure a range of 56 to 60 percent “Yes” votes, in reality, the “Yes” vote rate in the referendum was 51.24 percent and the “No” vote rate was 48.79 percent. More importantly, AKP “Yes” campaign has lost in major cities like Istanbul and Ankara.[3]

The April 16 referendum has declared a new political scene emerging in Turkey. After the referendum, intense light was shed on the main opposition party CHP, which was leading the “No” campaign. On the other side, the AKP has begun assessing the mistakes made, and attempted to restructure its relations with the people. One can perceive that both groups have started their preparations for the Presidential elections to be held in 2019. It is worth noting that the constitutional amendments will go into effect with the elections to be held in 2019.

Historical Prologue

CHP is the most important party established under the leadership of Mustafa Atatürk.  It is a Nationalist party having Kemalist ideology, with a political position close to the left and center. The party promotes its views of nationalism that are based on national identity, rather than ethnicity. İn order to instate secularism, CHP leaders who ruled Turkey until the 1950s, carried out an oppressive policy against religious communities and conservative values.

The early years of Turkey left a very negative echo in the memory of the right-wing, conservatives and Islamist circles. This memory led to the empowerment of the right-centered Democratic Party during 1950s. A military coup occurred in 1960, ousting CHP from power and its leader Adnan Menderes was executed. The CHP has not had enough power to stop this military coup even against it. After the 1960 coup, the Turkish politics began to recover from the revolt, as the left and right parties tried to rebuild themselves. However during this period, the CHP's one-sided politics transformed with a vision of 1974 Bülent Ecevit's social democracy.

Another military coup d'etat took place on September 12, 1980, and two years later in 1982 all political parties were banned and members of previous political parties were excluded from participation in the political process. This ban was lifted in 1987 and the first general elections since the ban took place.  Mustafa Bülent Ecevit was brought to the presidency of the Democratic Left Party, which returned to politics and governed Turkey from 1997 to 2002 as the Prime Minister.

CHP Dual Wings

We can see two important wings when we examine the CHP role in Turkey's history. A nationalist / Kemalist wing and the Social Democrat Ecevit wing. Ecevit's separation from the CHP made it possible for this party to sustain a monopoly of a Nationalist team for a long time.

After the election of Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu as CHP president on May 22, 2010, it was thought that there would be a significant shift in the direction of breaking the nationalist monopoly. At the same time, Ecevit’s rhetoric was expected to reemerge within the CHP. In other words, it was expected that Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu during the last seven years of leadership would return to the social democratic vision of the CHP and appeal to the public in Anatolia.

However, the CHP leader was trying to let the party appeal to both centers and winning votes by drawing names from the right center. Yet, through observing the elections held in the last seven years, it is evident that the increasing rate of the vote for CHP in the parliament ranges only from 1 to 3 percent. This reveals that Kılıçdaroğlu could not establish a successful dialogue between Anatolia and the right block. It is also important to note that there is no problem with Kılıçdaroğlu's voicing of the Social Democratic vision, but it is not enough to reflect it in the party. The provincial and district organizations of the parties in Turkey still remain institutions that have traditionally contacted the electorate. Despite the debate raised in traditional media and social media platforms, it is inevitable to perceive that it was ineffective.

The March for Justice

On June, the CHP Parliament member in Istanbul Enis Berberoğlu was sentenced to 25 years in prison for military spying on MIT TIRs. In response, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu called for a March to Istanbul from Ankara. The march, dubbed as "Justice March," began following the press statement of CHP leader Kılıçdaroğlu in Güvenpark Ankara on June 15.[4] The main motto of this march was calling for justice and it was said that the march was organized to express the voice of the people who were imprisoned unjustly. The march lasted for 23 days and was concluded with the meeting held in Istanbul on July 9. Thousands of people joined with Kılıçdaroğlu in the march and the meeting space in Istanbul was fully packed. .

Simultaneously, the State of Emergency commission started to look into the complaints and claims raised to restore the rights of the people who were unjustly imprisoned by the government.[5] The March for Justice and the meeting in Istanbul has shed light on his charisma inside the party, presenting him as a nationalist figure.

The March has raised various questions concerning whether will Kılıçdaroğlu run for the presidential elections in 2019? Or will he be able to lead the opposition part?

The CHP Leader explained his view of the 2019 elections in statements during the March. According to Kılıçdaroğlu, the presidential candidate of the opposition must be a non-partisan one. This goes back to the fact that for a candidate to be nominated, he has to impartial. [6] According to the referendum held on April 16, in order to ensure the impartiality of the Turkish President, the ban on the membership of the party has been abolished, which the CHP in principle is taking an opposing stance against it. At the same time, the non-partisan presidential candidate will have to take responsibility of the constitutional amendments to be made in the short-term.

Thus, Kılıçdaroğlu has put forward a model that is similar to the administration of the elected President Emmanuel Macron in the French elections. Those who favor the same model in Turkey think that they will be able to withdraw 48 percent of the votes received during the referendum process, and even claim that  it may increase to reach 51- 52 percent. However, in order to be able to secure those votes one must note and appeal to voters’ behavior, which changes in referendum, presidential elections, parliamentary and municipal elections.

Remaining Forces

The rightist block is aligned with the conservative Kurdish, Turkish and nationalist circles, which the AKP holds for a long time. Moreover, Recep Tayyip Erdogan has his own voters among these groups. Therefore, the opposition will need to disperse this balance and to create a new balanced coalition. The CHP alone was able to get a 25.3 percent vote in the Parliamentary elections from among the nationalist voters of the Leftist block. However, the AKP won 49.5 percent, the HDP was able to win 10.8 percent, and the MHP secured the votes of 11.9 percent.[6]

It is evident that nationalist votes have been increased significantly especially with the General Elections that took place in November 2015. Yet, in order to break the monopoly that has been established among the rightist block for AKP, CHP will need to recruit votes from the rightists. Since the CHP leader cannot get this vote from his own party, he suggests that the candidate should be an outsider; a person that does not belong to the party and appealing to most of the voters’ views.

Another political faction emerged out from the MHP under the leadership of Meral Akşener, who is trying to form a new party targeting the votes of the Right block and the Nationalists. Yet, Meral Aksener lack the capabilities to be the leader of the opposition. If all three leaders; Erdoğan, Kılıçdaroğlu and Meral Akşener are in the elections, Erdoğan and Kılıcdaroğlu are more likely to be in the second round. The net vote cannot be estimated unknown, as Meral Akşener has not entered any elections before as a party.

Potential Outcomes

Thus, while there is an emergence of a leader among the opposition, Erdogan's ruling party started rallies for recovery process. He has been working for a policy of increasing service again restructure the plagued and fatigued administrative team since he assumed power.

As a result, when the competition between the ruling party and the opposition is evaluated, one can perceive that the ruling party has a strong leader as well as a coherent framework and strategy for 2019 Presidential elections. In case of opposition, debate is still ongoing concerning who will run for the elections, if they complied with the non-partisan rule. In conclusion, there is still uncertainty in the opposition, and if there no extraordinary changes occurred, it is expected that the ruling party will be more fortunate for the 2019 elections.