The terrorist organization ISIS, with its extremist ideologies, remains one of the most significant sources of escalating national security threats in numerous countries, particularly in the strategically important Maghreb region. According to the Institute for Economics and Peace’s 2024 report on the Global Terrorism Index, ISIS, with its numerous branches, was identified as the most active terrorist organization in 2023. As such, it poses the greatest threat to national security for countries within and near its areas of operation, including its branch in West Africa and the Sahel-Sahara region, directly endangering the security of the Maghreb and North African countries.
Significant Indicators
Recent evidence suggests that ISIS has shown interest in targeting the Maghreb region. This interest is manifested through the formation of sleeper terrorist cells within these countries or by planning to use some of them as launching points for new terrorist operations. The following is a case-by-case overview of ISIS activities in the region.
1. Sleeper cells in Morocco:
On May 14, 2024, Moroccan authorities announced a significant achievement as the kingdom’s counter-terrorism units successfully dismantled a sleeper cell affiliated with ISIS. This cell, comprising four individuals based in the cities of Tiznit and Sidi Slimane, was found in possession of semi-military equipment including tactical vests, helmets, sighting scopes, masks, extremist writings, and various electronic devices. The Moroccan authorities emphasized that the cell members were involved in activities aimed at financing and supporting planned terrorist operations targeting national security. Since January 2024, Moroccan authorities have consistently uncovered ISIS cells that sought to recruit new members to join and fight alongside the fundamentalist group in the Sahel and Sahara regions.
2. Terrorist elements in Algeria:
On May 16, 2024, the Algerian Defense Ministry disclosed that its armed forces had arrested nine individuals suspected of affiliation with ISIS. The suspects had unlawfully entered the country through the Mali border and were discovered to be in possession of weapons and in possession of plans to carry out terrorist activities within Algeria.
3. Jund al-Khilafah members in Tunisia:
In April 2024, Tunisian authorities arrested numerous individuals linked to the Jund al-Khilafah militant group, an affiliate of ISIS. Among them was their leader, Mahmoud al-Salami. The group was discovered in possession of weapons and explosive belts and stood accused of plotting attacks on security and military installations, as well as spreading fear among citizens in Kasserine City, located in northern Tunisia.
4. Targeting the Maghreb and North Africa region by ISIS:
According to a report released by the United Nations in February 2024, it has been revealed that numerous armed elements of terrorist organizations are rapidly expanding across significant regions in Africa, including the Sahel, Sahara, and West Africa. The volatile regional landscape in these areas has created favorable conditions for the proliferation of terrorist groups, with the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) taking advantage of this environment to reorganize their forces. Their strategic objective is to utilize the Sahel and Sahara as a base for expanding their influence across Africa, encompassing the Maghreb and North Africa.
Recent announcements from Maghreb countries' security authorities have confirmed the arrest of terrorist infiltrators and the discovery of sleeper terrorist cells within their borders. Notably, Tunisian security authorities have arrested several ISIS-affiliated terrorists operating within the country. These individuals actively propagate a takfiri ideology on social media and orchestrate terrorist operations within Tunisia. In January, the Tunisian judiciary issued verdicts against multiple terrorist elements arrested for their association with ISIS. Furthermore, in March, Interior Minister Kamel Feki highlighted the significant security threats posed by various terrorist organizations, including ISIS, to the national security of the country.
Specific Motivations
Several political and security factors drive ISIS's focus towards the Maghreb and North Africa, including infiltration, the establishment of sleeper cells, and terrorist operations. These factors can be outlined as follows:
1. Expanding influence in the Maghreb:
The Maghreb region has become a key strategic target for ISIS, primarily due to the intense competition between ISIS and al-Qaeda. In the wake of significant losses suffered by both groups in the Middle East and Asia, they have been actively seeking to expand their influence into new territories. As a result, a fierce rivalry has emerged, especially in regions where their spheres of influence intersect.
ISIS has been particularly focused on targeting al-Qaeda cells in order to strengthen its image among its followers and attract new recruits to compensate for its substantial human and material losses. This competitive dynamic is notably evident in Libya, where ISIS has established three branches in Barqa, Fezzan, and Tripoli. The Islamic State's primary objective is to propagate its extremist ideologies and promote transnationalism through terrorist activities aimed at civilians, as well as military and security personnel in the countries where it operates.
2. Security vacuum in Libya:
Since the onset of political unrest in Libya in 2011, the country has been plagued by profound security instability and political turmoil. This environment has unfortunately provided a safe haven for terrorist organizations such as ISIS, which have established the country as a base for their operations, both domestically and against neighboring states. The persistent political and security vacuum in Libya continues to present a significant opportunity for these groups, particularly ISIS, to intensify their activities.
Despite Libya's improved ranking on the Global Terrorism Index for 2024 (now at 39th globally), the country remains a source of escalating terrorist activities. One such area is the border region of Ghadames, shared by Libya, Tunisia, and Algeria, which experiences significant security tensions due to its geographical location. This area is exploited by terrorist groups like ISIS for illegal drug and human trafficking to fund their activities. Notably, the region recently witnessed armed clashes between Libyan border guards and smuggling gangs.
3. Political and security turmoil in the Sahel-Sahara region:
The deteriorating political, security, and economic conditions in the Sahel-Sahara region have led to a sharp increase in terrorist activities, particularly by ISIS. Recent military coups and the subsequent withdrawal of French and Western troops have further exacerbated the threat. According to the 2024 Global Terrorism Index, Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger rank 2nd, 4th, and 10th, respectively, among the world's most terrorism-affected countries. Sub-Saharan Africa alone accounts for 59% of terrorist attack victims, with the majority occurring in these countries.
In 2023, Burkina Faso experienced a surge in ISIS activity, with the deadliest attack killing 71 soldiers in February 2023. Algeria is particularly vulnerable to this threat due to its extensive border with Mali and Mauritania. The recent military exercises conducted by Mauritania aim to deter terrorist organizations from exploiting the escalating political and security tensions with Mali. The infiltration of certain elements and units of the Malian army into shared border areas has caused strain between the neighboring countries. This instability could be exploited by terrorist organizations attempting to infiltrate Mauritania and carry out operations there.
4. Intra-Regional disputes:
Reports from France indicate the possibility of military confrontations between Algeria and Morocco due to ongoing political tension. This escalation also creates an opportunity for ISIS to recruit new members and exploit security vulnerabilities to expand its activities. This situation is not unique to these two countries but is also applicable to other nations in the region.
Potential Implications
It is essential to consider the potential implications of ISIS's efforts to expand into the Maghreb and North Africa, such as:
1. Political instability in the Maghreb:
If ISIS sleeper cells manage to expand their forces by recruiting individuals from Maghreb countries such as Tunisia, Libya, Algeria, and Morocco, they could potentially establish the Maghreb as a new operational base to undermine national security and destabilize the region. This could lead to the spread of security chaos, posing a significant threat to the political stability of these nations.
2. Enhancing economic gains:
If ISIS successfully expands its influence in the Maghreb, it would seek to enhance its economic resources. One way it could achieve this is by taking control of oil and gas fields, particularly in resource-rich countries such as Algeria, Libya, and Morocco. Moreover, ISIS's advancement poses a direct threat to European national security by contributing to an increase in illegal migration to Europe. The collaboration between ISIS and drug and human trafficking networks in the Sahel-Sahara region through the Maghreb to Europe exacerbates this threat.
The recent discovery of a strategic shift in human smuggling patterns indicates that smuggling networks are now using routes to Europe via Morocco's western coasts and the Canary Islands instead of making stop-overs in Moroccan cities like Tan-Tan, Dakhla, and Laayoune. This shift presents an opportunity for ISIS to exploit these routes to achieve its objectives.
3. Intensified terrorist activities:
ISIS is actively seeking to expand into the Maghreb, driven by intense competition with al-Qaeda. If ISIS succeeds, the region could become a battleground for multiple terrorist organizations, including al-Qaeda, as they seek to settle their scores. This expansion would likely lead to heightened security and political instability, creating chaos in several countries.
Diverse Measures
To combat terrorism and mitigate the proliferation of fundamentalist organizations, Maghreb countries have implemented the following measures to protect their national security from potential threats.
1. Security approaches:
Security authorities in the Maghreb have implemented preemptive strikes against terrorist strongholds, significantly curbing their activities. This proactive strategy has led to a notable improvement in the 2024 Global Terrorism Index rankings for Maghreb countries: Algeria now ranks 44th, Tunisia 36th (a four-point increase from the previous year), and Morocco 89th. These rankings reflect the successful neutralization of terrorist organizations, positioning Morocco as one of the safest countries worldwide. In Tunisia, the anti-terrorism strategy has effectively reduced the number of ISIS-affiliated Jund al-Khilafah members to 11 in 2023, down from 117 during 2014-2016, through targeted security operations.
2. Security coordination:
In a demonstration of bilateral and multilateral security coordination among Maghreb countries, Tunisian Interior Minister Kamel Feki and Algerian Interior Minister Brahim Merad convened to reach an agreement aimed at strengthening security cooperation. The collaboration will encompass various areas, including terrorism prevention, the combatting of smuggling and illegal immigration, and the addressing of their underlying causes. Special emphasis will be placed on economically and developmentally marginalized border provinces within the region.
Security coordination also involves intelligence sharing concerning suspected ISIS-affiliated individuals and smuggling gangs. On another level, Morocco actively participates in the Africa Focus Group meetings, which are part of the Global Coalition To Defeat ISIS.
4- Enhancing counter-terrorism forces' readiness:
The Maghreb countries are enhancing the preparedness of their security and military institutions through the acquisition of cutting-edge weaponry and military equipment. This is coupled with their active involvement in joint military exercises with foreign nations. For example, the Moroccan Armed Forces recently took part in the "Flintlock 2024" military exercises conducted in Ghana and Ivory Coast. Moreover, Algeria and Tunisia engaged in military drills with diverse international and regional partners, focusing on fortifying their armed forces, particularly those specializing in counter-terrorism.
In conclusion, the current data indicates the success of security and military institutions in Maghreb countries in preventing ISIS from escalating its activities within their borders. The absence of major terrorist attacks in these countries in recent years serves as evidence of thwarting ISIS's terrorist plots. Consequently, ISIS's chances of infiltrating Maghreb countries and targeting their national security are currently limited. However, the volatile regional environment could provide favorable factors that ISIS might exploit. Through its terrorist operations, ISIS could seek to demonstrate its ability to play an influential role in the security system of the Maghreb and North Africa, similar to its actions in West Africa, the Sahel, and the Sahara.
